116 FXUS63 KIND 241944 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 244 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 353 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 A strong low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes today and drag a cold front through central Indiana this morning. Winds behind this front will be quite strong, with frequent gusts of 40-50 MPH across the entire area, and occasional gusts of 50-60 MPH possible across the northern half of the area. Quiet weather will return for the start of the work week with near to slightly below normal temperatures much of the period. Low chances for precipitation return to the forecast at times mid week onward with weak disturbances and a diffuse midlevel frontal zone in the region. && .NEAR TERM /This afternoon/... Issued at 957 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 Surface analysis early this morning shows deep low pressure in place over the Great Lakes and a very tight pressure gradient over Indiana. Strong Westerly winds were in place across Indiana with many sustained winds near 30 mph and gusts in the 40s. A few occasional gusts of 50+ continue to be observed. The Low will continue to quickly pull northeast today...but the strong pressure gradient in place across Indiana will continue to result in strong...gusty and potentially damaging winds. Forecast soundings and Time height sections also continue to show the intrusion of dry air into the column as the day progresses and high pressure begins to build across the region from the NW. Thus have trended toward a dry forecast today with steady or slowly falling temperatures due to the ongoing cold air advection. Given the observed winds and ongoing impacts...current high wind warning is in good shape. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... Issued at 353 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 Winds may remain a bit gusty this evening but will be steadily decreasing as the night wears on. Quiet weather will be expected through the start of the week as high pressure will generally be in control. Some frontogenetic forcing may produce precipitation in the region late in the period but this will remain well north of the area. Consensus temperatures seemed reasonable and required only minor adjustments. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Issued at 244 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 The ECMWF brings a weak short wave across Indiana on Late Wednesday Night through Thursday. Surface features at that time appear poorly defined with a weak area of Low pressure moving through the deep south and high pressure in place across the Great Lakes. Cool NE flow will be in place at the surface. Thus given the uncertainty due to the strength of the systems...kept the low pops across the southern parts of the forecast area on Late Wednesday night and pops on Thursday as the short wave passes. Confidence is low. A strong system looks to push across the region on Friday Night and early Saturday as a deeper upper wave pushes out of the plains toward Indiana. Ahead of the upper system a surface low is depicted to push out of the deep south and move along the Appalachians toward the eastern Great Lakes. These two features should provide ample forcing...thus pops here seem warranted and confidence is higher. Dry weather looks to return late Saturday and Sunday as another Canadian high pressure system builds across the midwest. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 241800Z Tafs/... Issued at 1252 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 MVFR Cigs across the area will improve to VFR this afternoon. GOES16 shows the back edge of the cloud shield entering Western Indiana...quickly progressing across the state. Strong high pressure over the plains will build across Indiana through the TAF period. Time heights and forecast soundings show a drying column across the area through the period along with subsidence. Thus a return to unlimited cigs is expected this afternoon. A strong pressure gradient will remain in place this afternoon and evening due to the deep low to the north. This will continue to result in gusty winds between 35-45 mph this afternoon. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for INZ051>057-060>065- 067>072. High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for INZ021-028>031- 035>049. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nield NEAR TERM...PUMA SHORT TERM...Nield LONG TERM....Puma AVIATION...JP