338 FXUS63 KMPX 241150 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 550 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 .Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion... Issued at 544 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 344 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 Snow from the powerful winter storm will end from west to east this morning, but winds will increase with gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected by mid-day. These winds will gradually taper off during the afternoon, but should still remain fairly steady overnight as temperatures fall below zero. Wind chills of 25 to 35 below zero can be expected by Monday morning. Later on Monday a quick moving area of light snow will develop along and south of the Minnesota River Valley. There is not much moisture or forcing, and this is a fast moving system, so snowfall totals will only be about an inch at the most. Highs on Monday will only make it into the single digits for most locations. Early morning satellite imagery together with Rap13 analysis and surface obs showed a 985mb surface low across east central Wisconsin. This low will continue to deepen into the 970s this morning as it lifts northeast into southern Ontario. Meanwhile a 1036mb high will build into the Dakotas. This will tighten the pressure gradient and winds should increase during the morning today. Even though the snow has ended, northwest wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph should cause considerable blowing and drifting snow. There is an area of low clouds across the Red River Valley that are producing some light snow showers, and these could make their way southeast and compound the reduced visibility from blowing snow. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 344 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 Not much change in the extended forecast period with a persistent Arctic air mass holding near the region. Thus, with a strong west to east jet overhead, and several weak disturbances riding along this strong jet, there will be several chances of light snow next week. However, due to weaker wind speeds near the surface, most of the events will be non-impactful, and mainly affecting the morning/afternoon commute based on timing. Late in the week, both the GFS and EC are showing a more potent storm moving across the Plains. This system is similar to tonight's but a bit farther to the southeast. Wind speeds are not as strong, but enough to impact travel, especially in open country as gusty winds will be likely. Temperatures remain abnormally cold for late February, and early March with some record lows possible. On average, temperatures will average 20 to 40 degrees below normal. Models have also been persistent with the colder air along the lee of the Rockies vs, the Upper Midwest. Past next weekend, the upper air pattern doesn't change much with a deep trough centered over the northwestern CONUS, with an upper ridge centered over Alaska, and northwestern Canada. This will keep the bulk of the cold air across the northern tier of the nation. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 546 AM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 IFR/LIFR conditions with blowing snow and strong wind this morning. Snow will end at KEAU this morning. We should see winds start to decrease toward late afternoon and evening, with gusts falling of later tonight. KMSP... Strong wind and blowing snow, but at this point expect visbys to be generally MVFR with occasional IFR possible later this morning. Wind gusts near 40 kts are expected. Looking ahead, winds will decrease late this afternoon and the gusts should fall off around midnight tonight. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR with -shsn staying south. Winds NW at 05 kts. Tue...MVFR/-SN with IFR possible. Wind E at 10 kts Wed...VFR. Wind NW at 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ016-023>028. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ014-015. MN...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ041-042- 047>049-051-054>059-064>070-073>078-082>085-091>093. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ043>045-050-052. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ053- 060>063. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...JRB