856 FXUS62 KTAE 220717 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 217 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... Marine stratus and fog continues to advect inland on light but steady southerly winds. Some dense fog is possible through the night with the better probabilities adjacent to the coast so issues a dense fog advisory for this area through 15Z and monitoring for expansion northward. Not much in the way of high clouds so fog should dissipate by mid morning and some breaks should begin occurring by late morning and early afternoon. We should see more clouds today so nudged highs today down slightly but still expecting U70s to L80s. There is a slight chance for a shower across the western FL panhandle and SE AL with light rainfall amounts. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]... In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast until a trough moves in on tomorrow night and Sunday. At the surface high pressure will be over the East Coast. A low will eject from the Rockies tomorrow. The associated cold front will approach the region tomorrow night and move through on Sunday. The best chance for rain will be late tomorrow night through Sunday morning with POPs up to 60 percent. Temps will be above normal tomorrow and may even break some records. Highs will be in the lower 80s tomorrow. Lows will be in the 60s tonight and tomorrow night. Sunday highs will be in the 70s as the cold front moves through. .LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]... In the upper levels nearly zonal flow will be in place until a trough moves in midweek. At the surface high pressure will be in place Sunday night and Monday. By Tuesday a slight wet pattern will be in place as a disturbance in the Gulf moves eastward. The best chance for rain looks to be Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Saturday] Marine fog featuring low cigs/vsbys is advecting northward from the Gulf. All sites are currently experiencing there flt restrictions down below IFR with the exception of ABY. Anticipate this are to move into ABY over the next several hours. Conds will be poor and will remain that way through mid morning. Conds will improve to VFR but possibly not until around noon local time. Winds will be from the south at 10 knots or less. && .MARINE... Winds will be light to moderate and southerly until a cold front moves through on Sunday. Winds will be strong and northerly Sunday night through Monday morning. Then winds will be moderate and easterly through midweek. && .FIRE WEATHER... Aside from possible high dispersions on Saturday, there are no other fire weather concerns. Some dense fog is expected both this morning and overnight tonight. && .HYDROLOGY... Local river levels are steady or falling and mostly below action stage. Forecast rain totals for the next five days are 1/2 inch or less. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 82 63 82 66 75 / 10 10 10 20 50 Panama City 76 64 75 65 71 / 20 10 20 40 50 Dothan 81 63 81 63 70 / 20 10 20 60 30 Albany 81 61 81 65 72 / 10 20 30 30 50 Valdosta 84 63 83 65 75 / 10 10 20 10 40 Cross City 85 63 84 65 78 / 10 10 10 20 30 Apalachicola 72 64 73 66 71 / 20 10 20 20 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor- Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin- Inland Gulf-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Liberty- North Walton-South Walton-Washington. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...McD LONG TERM...McD AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...McD FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...McD