332 
FXUS64 KSHV 220045
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
645 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, IFR/MVFR will persist and rounds of shwrs and 
isold TSTM for our terminals off and on throughout this TAF 
cycle. Little change until the wknd with a big push of wind. Svr 
wx a possibility late fri/am Sat for all terminals until fropa. 
Until then, ENE shallow flow under SW EPac moist pineapple flow 
aloft will keep us in the foggy misty rain in between downpours. 
Southerly flow imports Gulf moisture and dangerous low level winds
ahead of approaching first real Spring like storm. VFR to follow.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019/ 

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday Night/ Weak frontal 
boundary across the region combined with impulses within southwest
flow aloft will support periods of showers and isolated 
thunderstorms through Friday night. Although some areas can expect
locally heavy rain at times, GFS precipitation totals only 
advertising widespread amounts of 2 to 3 inches over the next 
36-48 hours. With FFG around 2 to 3 inches per hour, not expecting
major flooding issues with this system despite the wet grounds. 
Therefore, will hold off on issuing any flash flood headlines at 
this time. However, minor flooding of low-lying areas may be 
possible. 

Temperatures tonight to fall into the mid 40s. High temperatues
on Friday expected to climb into the mid 50s. Warmer temperatures 
expected on Friday night as surface front lifts north as a warm 
front with lows in the mid 50s. /05/

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/

Expect a strong short wave trough to eject from the desert SW during 
Friday and affect the forecast area with numerous TSTMS during late 
Friday through Saturday afternoon.  This trough deepens and becomes 
negatively tilted during this weekend.  As a result, we can expect a 
line of severe TSTMS to traverse the region from W to E during late 
Friday through Saturday afternoon.

By late Saturday afternoon, the TSTMS move E into MS with negative 
vorticity advection on the backside of the trough with dry 
weather expected Sunday and Monday.

Weak return flow develops during the middle of next week with SCT 
showers in the forecast.  Only light rainfall amounts remain 
expected in a zonal flow regime, helping our area rivers, bayous, 
and lakes to continue with only typical springtime, nuisance, minor 
flooding or with above normal streamflows and discharges.  /VIII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1155 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019/ 

AVIATION...
Periods of showers with embedded thunderstorms expected throughout
the terminal forecast period. Ceilings to become IFR/LIFR after
sunset with visibility values falling to 1-2SM due to rain and
drizzle. Flight categories to remain at or below MVFR through the
end of the terminal forecast period ending 22/18Z. Otherwise,
northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots to prevail through the
period. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  46  56  55  72 /  70  90  80  90 
MLU  48  61  59  76 /  80  80  80  80 
DEQ  45  53  50  68 /  50  70  80 100 
TXK  45  52  51  71 /  60  80  80  90 
ELD  45  54  53  73 /  80  90  90  90 
TYR  46  56  54  67 /  60  70  80  90 
GGG  46  56  54  71 /  60  80  80  90 
LFK  49  62  60  73 /  60  80  80  90 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/05/07