434 
FXUS64 KSJT 210951
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
351 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Generally quiet weather expected through tonight. Fast southwest 
flow aloft will continue over the area, bringing in a steady stream 
of mid and upper level clouds. At the surface, expect southeast to 
south winds with a few gusts to 20 mph this afternoon. This will 
start the moisture increase at the lower levels ahead of the next 
upper level system that will move into the southern CA/NV area by 
Thursday afternoon. A few showers will be possible across the 
southeast part of the area late tonight. The temperatures will be 
close to normal values for this time of year for highs and above 
normal for lows tonight.  

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

Upper level trough set to cross the Southern Rockies by Friday
Night, with lift increasing across West Central Texas ahead of it.
Not much change in rain chances, with light showers across the
Hill Country and Heartland late Thursday night increasing across
the eastern areas by Friday and then areawide for Friday night.
System closes off and passes across the Panhandle and into Kansas
by Saturday afternoon. This leaves a very tight surface pressure
gradient, with strong subsidence helping bring higher winds speeds
aloft to the surface as well. Have boosted wind speeds
substantially on Saturday with wind gusts near 50 mph possible. 

GFS and ECMWF have their differences for early next week, with the
ECMWF dropping a stronger cold front through West Central Texas.
ECMWF keeps temperatures in the 40s and 50s on Tuesday while the
GFS has readings climbing well into the 70s. Will lean a little
cooler for now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to impact 
the area Saturday behind a Pacific cold front. West winds will 
increase to 30 to 40 mph by late morning, with dry, mild air 
moving in behind the front as well. This will cause RH values to 
drop to between 15 and 25 percent. These dry conditions, combined 
with strong west winds will result in elevated to near critical 
fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 58  43  62  46 /   5  10  20  50 
San Angelo 	 63  43  70  44 /   0  10  20  50 
Junction 	 62  46  70  47 /   5  30  40  60 
Brownwood 	 56  43  62  47 /  10  20  40  70 
Sweetwater 	 60  43  65  44 /   0  10  10  50 
Ozona      	 61  45  67  43 /   0  10  10  30 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

21/07/21