724 
FXUS65 KPIH 202121
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
221 PM MST Wed Feb 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.
Snow continues to fall across the eastern portions of the Snake
Plain, aided at least in part by upslope flow. We'll continue to
see this through the evening although accumulation on pavement
will likely be limited through the daylight hours. We are
beginning to see a little more of a convective element to the snow
showers, a sign that lapse rates are steepening a little. This
could locally enhance snow rates through the evening, causing some
additional travel concerns. Will continue to carry the Winter 
Weather Advisory from the interstate corridor to the southeast 
corner of the state.

The diminishing snow trend will occur through the early Thursday,
save for the Bear Lake are where some wrap around may move back 
in. Thursday will be mostly dry, but with the low density nature
of the fresh snow, stronger northerly winds will cause some
blowing and drifting, particularly through the Snake Plain. Friday
will start off very cold, with morning lows dependent on remaining
cloud cover. It will be a dry and relatively sunny day, which will
serve as a pleasant break from the recent storminess.
TAX 


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday. 
Expect snow return Saturday mainly to the mountains but both GFS and 
European backing off the system a bit but have precipitation in grids 
Saturday into Wednesday.   Think there is the potential the central 
mountains and eastern highlands could again see some significant 
snowfall but confidence is not very high right now.  Models now 
significantly warming up the Snake River Plain with temperatures 
well above freezing by Sunday and continuing through Wednesday. 
Began trend in grids of warming it up but not to the extent yet of 
GFS model but did drive Snake Plain above freezing by Monday and 
added in at least a rain snow mix to the precipitation.  Will wait 
another model run or two before completely jumping on the warmup 
early next week.  
GK


&&

.AVIATION...
Light snow has continued this afternoon at BYI, PIH, IDA and DIJ 
with ceilings improving to MVFR conditions.   Generally expect 
improving conditions later this afternoon and evening.  Could see 
the light snow persisting through 00Z at many of the sites.  Expect 
VFR conditions to overspread the sites from 00z through 05z.  Expect 
VFR conditions on Thursday to continue.  
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for IDZ051-
053>065.

&&

$$