173 FXUS63 KIND 201655 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1155 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 405 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 A low pressure system will move through the area today bringing precipitation to the area. A wintry mix will change to rain this morning. A stronger area of low pressure will bring rain chances later Friday into early Sunday. Yet another system will bring more rain chances around Tuesday. Near normal to above normal temperatures will rule for much of the period. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 941 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 Light rain and drizzle lingered across the northern half of the forecast area this morning in the wake of the wintry mix that occurred earlier this morning. Patchy fog was reducing visibilities in spots as well. 1430Z temperatures had warmed above freezing across all but the far northern portions of the forecast area and even in these areas the temperatures were right at 32F. Deeper moisture has temporarily shifted east of the region this morning but patchy drizzle lingered with saturated conditions in the lower levels trapped beneath drier air above the boundary layer. Drizzle will linger with patchy fog for the rest of the morning as temperatures slowly but steadily climb. Travel conditions are improving with the rising temperatures and will allow the advisory to drop at 15Z with an SPS to follow for any lingering road issues as the leftover slop gradually melts. The rest of the forecast is in good shape as more widespread rain will lift back into the forecast area from the south for the afternoon as a secondary wave lifts into the region from the southwest. Should see the bulk of the rain shifting east of the forecast area by sunset with low clouds lingering into tonight. Winds will occasionally gust to near 25mph through the afternoon as they veer from E/SE this morning to SW by early evening. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)... Issued at 405 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. The far eastern counties look to have a low chance for lingering rain early this evening. Otherwise high pressure will build in and provide dry weather overnight tonight through early Friday. Clouds will take a while to clear out, but expect partly cloudy conditions for Thursday into early Friday. Rain chances will move in Friday afternoon and Friday night as some lift moves in ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The better forcing and moisture will not arrive until after the short term period, so will keep PoPs in chance category most places. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued at 344 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 An upper wave will move through central Indiana Saturday night along with a surface frontal system that will bring a warm front moving north through the area Saturday and then a cold front through on Saturday night. Models are in good agreement on the strength of the upper wave, and the development of a low level jet ahead of it that will help with warm advection and moisture transport ahead of the system. Thus with the strong forcing and arrival of some instability see some thunderstorm chances across most of the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There is some potential for strong storms given the strength of the forcing, but given the time of day of the best forcing (Saturday night after dark) this far north not ready to bite on that yet. Another area of concern will be the strong winds with this system. Both ahead of the cold front, and especially behind it, the pressure gradient across the forecast area is very strong, and even MOS guidance which tends to be more conservative in that arena, is showing winds of 25 to 30 kts, which could easily translate into gusts that are 40+ kts. If models do not change in the strength/trajectory of the surface low, will have to monitor for wind headlines especially on Sunday behind the cold front. After Sunday the weather should calm a bit with slowly warming temperatures. The next chance for precipitation arrives Tuesday afternoon with an upper disturbance moving through. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 201800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1155 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 Poor flying conditions will continue into this evening with a slow improvement to VFR conditions towards daybreak Thursday. Drizzle and light rain continues late this morning across the region with widespread sub-IFR conditions. More widespread rain will return through the afternoon as a secondary surface wave lifts into the region from the southwest. Model soundings show a saturated near surface layer with high confidence in significant visibility and ceiling restrictions through much of the afternoon. Ceilings as low as 200-300 ft are possible at the terminals with visibilities lower than 2SM at times. Winds will veer from southeast to southwest by early evening as the low pressure passes through the area. Rain will shift east of the region towards sunset with dry conditions developing this evening as high pressure builds into the lower Ohio Valley. Lower stratus will be slow to lift and scatter as model soundings indicate a sharp bu t shallow inversion lingering below 900mb for much of the night. Should see gradual improvements back to VFR ceilings late tonight into Thursday morning with clouds fully scattering by midday Thursday. Westerly winds are expected tonight into Thursday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...Ryan SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...Ryan