469 FXUS63 KIND 201055 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 555 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 405 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 A low pressure system will move through the area today bringing precipitation to the area. A wintry mix will change to rain this morning. A stronger area of low pressure will bring rain chances later Friday into early Sunday. Yet another system will bring more rain chances around Tuesday. Near normal to above normal temperatures will rule for much of the period. && .NEAR TERM (Today)... Issued at 405 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 A mixed bag of precipitation continues to fall across central Indiana this morning, with just about every precipitation type falling somewhere. Even thunder is across the far southern forecast area. Strong lift will continue across the area early this morning with a strong low level jet. Will keep high PoPs. Warm air aloft is making its way north, with precipitation changing to freezing rain at the office at the moment. Warmer surface temperatures are lagging and taking longer then previous expected to move north. Will keep the wintry mix going early this morning most areas. Given the lag in surface temperatures, have extended the time of the far southern area of the advisory until 700 AM. Will reevaluate all the advisory later this morning to see if additional adjustments are needed. Didn't change snow amounts that much (especially given lack of reports), but given what's fallen here feel that those amounts look reasonable. Used a pre-first period in the text products to cover what's going on now. After 12Z, only have a mix in the northern quarter or so of the area. However, even with tempertures above freezing, the snow/ice on roads could still cause issues. For now will let the advisory go to 15Z. By 15Z all areas will be rain. There will be a relative lull in rain so lowered PoPs to chance many areas by then. However, more forcing moves in as a wave moves through. Ramped PoPs back up to likely or higher most areas by 19Z. PoPs will then diminish from west to east as the wave moves off to the east. Model blend looks reasonable for highs today. Will have to keep an eye on the far south to see if any warmer air than expected can sneak in with the wave this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)... Issued at 405 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. The far eastern counties look to have a low chance for lingering rain early this evening. Otherwise high pressure will build in and provide dry weather overnight tonight through early Friday. Clouds will take a while to clear out, but expect partly cloudy conditions for Thursday into early Friday. Rain chances will move in Friday afternoon and Friday night as some lift moves in ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The better forcing and moisture will not arrive until after the short term period, so will keep PoPs in chance category most places. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued at 344 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 An upper wave will move through central Indiana Saturday night along with a surface frontal system that will bring a warm front moving north through the area Saturday and then a cold front through on Saturday night. Models are in good agreement on the strength of the upper wave, and the development of a low level jet ahead of it that will help with warm advection and moisture transport ahead of the system. Thus with the strong forcing and arrival of some instability see some thunderstorm chances across most of the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There is some potential for strong storms given the strength of the forcing, but given the time of day of the best forcing (Saturday night after dark) this far north not ready to bite on that yet. Another area of concern will be the strong winds with this system. Both ahead of the cold front, and especially behind it, the pressure gradient across the forecast area is very strong, and even MOS guidance which tends to be more conservative in that arena, is showing winds of 25 to 30 kts, which could easily translate into gusts that are 40+ kts. If models do not change in the strength/trajectory of the surface low, will have to monitor for wind headlines especially on Sunday behind the cold front. After Sunday the weather should calm a bit with slowly warming temperatures. The next chance for precipitation arrives Tuesday afternoon with an upper disturbance moving through. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 201200z TAF issuance/... Issued at 544 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 Precipitation will come to an end over the next hour or so from west to east. May include an hour of it at KLAF, KBMG, and KIND depending on radar trends at issuance time. After that, though should see precip end but low ceilings hang around through the day. Expect to see rain showers pick up later this afternoon and could see some patchy MVFR visibilities with this as well. Winds will stay up through the day and expect to see off and on gusts of 20 to 28 kts until after around 0z or so. Conditions will likely remain IFR through the overnight hours before improving to VFR tomorrow morning. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ021- 028>031-035>049-054>057. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for INZ051>053-060>065-069>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...CP