656 FXUS63 KDLH 180250 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 850 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Lake effect snow chances will be the short term concern. Snow showers earlier this evening have diminished but latest satellite and radar shows a growing area of returns over far western Lake Superior and we expect this to continue tonight and affect areas as far west as Douglas County. The RAP shows a rather deep layer in the max dendritic snow growth layer but the airmass is rather dry so it will be fight between the favorable thermal profile and the dry air. We have increased POPs along the South Shore and added some accumulation but generally kept amounts light for now. The low level winds will remain northeast through much of the night but will gradually back after 08Z or so becoming north by mid to late Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 355 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Generally quiet conditions are expected through the short term as the main storm track remains to the south of the area. Only concern is the light lake effect snow along the North and South Shores of Lakes Superior. Upper level low pressure is seen near Sioux City, Iowa, this afternoon with a longwave trough extending back to the northwest into the northern High Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure in the western Ohio Valley trails an inverted trough to the northwest into the Red River Valley of the North. Areas of snow are seen along the trough, but this activity is having difficulties making it north of I-94 in Minnesota. The edge of the cloud shield has pushed into the southern CWA, but have yet to see any reports of snow in our CWA despite some light radar returns. Dry air and lack of saturation are keeping things dry in the Northland from this system. Further north, onshore winds off Lake Superior have led to some lake effect snow from the Silver Bay area down into the Twin Ports. Additional bands have developed and moved over the Bayfield Peninsula and Iron County. Most of this should diminish heading into the evening hours per hi-res guidance, but some light flurries may linger into late evening. Snow showers may persist in Iron County through the night and into Monday morning before quickly ending during the early afternoon as winds turn off-shore. Beyond that, dry conditions are then expected through Monday night as weak high pressure moves through. Some northern areas may clear out tonight, leading to better radiational cooling conditions. Most areas will be in the single digits below zero, but areas that clear out will have no issues getting into the teens below zero. Highs will reach into the teens on Monday before cooling back into the single digits below zero Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 355 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 A fairly active weather pattern will remain in place across most of the continental U.S. from mid week through next weekend, but the atmosphere has acquired a flow regime that is now (finally) closer to what one would expect during an El Nino winter - with a very active southern stream storm track, and a weaker northern stream from the Canadian Prairie provinces to the northern Great Lakes. For the most part, this will leave the Northland in between storm tracks, with comparatively quiet weather compared to locations farther north, or south. The other major effect this will have on the Northland is that temps will be near, or slightly below normal, rather than the bitter cold that has dominated much of the past month. The best chance for organized precipitation, in the form of widespread light to moderate snow, appears to be Tuesday night and Wednesday with a well-organized mid level trof ejecting from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the moment, this doesn't have the look of a major storm for the Duluth CWA, but given available model guidance, amounts as great as 4-6 inches could be on the table across much of northwest Wisconsin, with lesser amounts the farther north and west one goes. Given the timing, with snow moving in overnight Tuesday, there could be some impacts for Wednesday morning travel/commute activity. We will need to monitor model trends closely the next 24-36 hours, as a subtle northwest shift in the path of max forcing for ascent could push the heavier snow amounts northward across a much larger portion of our CWA. Beyond that, a series of weaker disturbances in both the northern and southern storm track will deamplify as they approach the confluent mid level flow over the Lake Superior/Ontario area, which will result in continued period chances for light snow. Most operational model runs are now considerably farther south with the storm system for next weekend, but we will continue to monitor. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 540 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Much of the Northland will be under VFR conditions through the period. The exception will be around Lake Superior, mainly from around Silver Bay to Duluth and into northern Wisconsin where MVFR and possible IFR ceilings will be possible. These ceilings will occur through tonight, and in the case of northern Wisconsin, well into Monday. There will be periodic snow showers as well, especially along the South Shore and the visibility may dip to 1 to 3 miles and at times to a half mile like recently observed at KASX. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -3 16 -1 17 / 30 10 0 0 INL -12 11 -11 14 / 0 0 10 0 BRD -3 15 -7 14 / 0 0 0 0 HYR -1 19 0 20 / 30 0 0 0 ASX -1 17 0 21 / 70 50 10 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Melde SHORT TERM...BJH LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Melde