075 
FXUS63 KGID 172102
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
302 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Short term should be relatively quiet. Some cumulus around giving
us some flurries this afternoon, but should wane once sunset hits,
save for some stragglers this evening in the north that might hang
on longer due to the influence of the final spoke of energy
rounding the northern Plains low.

Went a tad higher than guidance for lows tonight due to wind
speeds staying up a bit compared to last night. Wind should 
diminish this evening, however near sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Main focus for long term is yet another wave coming out of the
rockies. Much of our precipitation will come when isentropic lift
ensues mostly on Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of the main
wave. 

We do have a loss of saturation in mid-levels in our south during
the day on Tuesday, but there is quite a deep dendritic layer
above the dry mid-layer, and any saturated layer in the lowest
levels stays below 850 mb, making this scenario unlikely to
produce freezing drizzle. Three to four inches continues to look
reasonable for this quick-hitting system.

Lowered temps for Saturday post-cold front and we will continue
our long streak of below normal temps through the entire forecast.
More chances of snow remain in outer periods as more fast-moving
waves move by in a rather persistent pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Ceilings could be tricky, especially for KGRI on the edge of some
MVFR stratus as it slowly moves off to the east/northeast. Blowing
snow could cause sensors to show less than VFR visibility, but
this would not be from falling snow. I think the wind should not
be strong enough to consistently put us in MVFR visibility, but
may need to amend forecasts if it is more persistent this
afternoon. Wind speeds should diminish toward sunset near 00Z.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein