018 FXUS62 KMHX 171953 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 253 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary to the south will lift back to the coast tonight. A cold front will pass through from the northwest Monday, then move back as a warm front Tue night through Wed. The front will shift back and forth several times late in the week, resulting in a continued unsettled weather pattern. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Areas of light to moderate rain have mostly been confined to the northern CWA where the best lift and deepest axis of moisture is located. Think that pattern will continue tonight and have likely PoPs north ranging to high chance south. QPF totals should be quite light, with only perhaps one-tenth of an inch in the heavier showers overnight. Our area remains in the midst of a plume of deep moisture remains in place across the southern United States from the Pacific all the way to the mid-Atlantic states. Temperatures will change little from today's readings with lows remaining in the low/mid 40s over most areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Low level flow veers to SE/S and increase early Monday morning as another round of rain crosses the area through the morning hours. Good agreement in most of the high- resolution and synoptic models showing cold front crossing the coast during the early afternoon hours with surface dewpoints dropping from the 50s to lower 40s by evening. Any precipitation should move offshore by 18z or so. Highs temperatures should reach the low/mid 60s in the warm sector ahead of the front before falling late in the afternoon. Once again, QPF totals are expected to be relatively light as this high PoP/low QPF regime continues in place. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday... Mostly unsettled weather expected through the period, as numerous frontal systems/low pressure areas/shortwaves impact the region. Monday Night through Tuesday...High pressure will build in from the north Monday night into Tuesday, allowing for drier and cooler air to filter in and provide a break from the rain and clouds. Temps drop into the 30s Mon night under mo clear skies and light winds. Tuesday will be seasonably cool with highs ranging from the low 40s nrn OBX to the low 50s south and west. Tuesday night through Wednesday night...As a deep mid-level trough lingers in the Southwestern United States, a moist SW upper level flow will be present over the SE CONUS. A weak shortwave moving up the coast, combined with coastal front/inverted trough developing off the NC coast and warm front lifting north will be a focus for isentropically driven rain Tue night through Wednesday. The highest QPF and best rain support continues to be over our northern counties. 17/12Z ECMWF/CMC continues to be a bit wetter on Tue night, with GFS and NAM drier, and will continue to highlight high chc pops Tue night as confidence not yet high enough to mention likelies. Better consensus that widespread rain occurs Wed as aforementioned shortwave and weak low pull north with best moisture/lift over the area. Thursday through Friday...Tough forecast this period, as wavering front will be nearby, and continued broad SW flow aloft will mean rain chances each period. Therefore continue to mention high chc pops. Thursday highs look to be quite warm with highs in the 70s, then perhaps cooler on Friday if the front can sink far enough south, though again with timing of front, temperature forecast is subject to change. Saturday through Sunday...Somewhat better chc for rain first part of the weekend, as next low pressure area/shortwave will swing through the Ohio valley and bring lift/moisture through the region. Timing of the system this far out is tough, so will continue high chc rain in the forecast. Temps look to be quite warm as area will be in warm sector, with highs in the 60s to 70s. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through 18Z Mon/... As of 1235 PM Sunday...Patchy showers currently across the region with plume of deep moisture covering much of the southern United States from the Pacific all the way to the mid-Atlantic. Ceilings have dropped to MVFR at KOAJ and should follow suit at the other TAF sites during the late afternoon with a prolonged period of IFR/LIFR ceilings expected tonight and into Monday afternoon at all TAF sites. Patchy light rain is expected. With veering winds in the lower layers, a period of LLWS is possible early Monday morning. Long Term /Mon night through Fri/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Sub- VFR conditions for most of the week, except for Monday night and Tuesday as conditions are expected to be VFR under high pressure and partly cloudy skies. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Monday/ As of 3 PM Sunday...Winds at late afternoon are NE at 10-15 knots with seas generally at 4-5 feet. Earlier issued SCA for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as winds/seas will be ramping up toward morning as the flow veers to S/SW and increases in response to surface low moving north of the area pulling a cold front south toward the coast. SW winds of 15-25 knots and seas of 4-6 feet are likely in the advisory area tomorrow. A few gusts to 30 knots may be possible. Other waters, especially the Pamlico Sound and far northern waters, may need to be added to the advisory. Long Term /Mon night through Thu/ As of 3 PM Sun...SCA conditions quickly redevelop Mon night as N to NE surge of 15-25 kt develop behind cold front Monday night into Tuesday with seas 3-6 ft. NE winds and seas diminish below SCA later Tue, then veer E to S on Wed and strengthen back to 15-25 kt with SCA likely redeveloping. Winds turn swrly by Thur and diminish to 10-20 kt. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...CTC/TL MARINE...CTC/TL