441 FXUS64 KLUB 171721 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1121 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 .AVIATION... VFR conditions through Monday morning. Light east to southeast winds today will begin to increase this evening in response the pressure falls from a developing storm system to our west. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/ DISCUSSION... Split flow jet regime continues with west southwesterly flow across the region this morning as a three lobed storm system remains poised over the northern Rockies. Our next weather maker is up across OR this morning and will morph into a neutrally tilted trough which will make its way into the four corners region by mid-day Tuesday followed by a second disturbance approaching the area on Thursday while the next system takes shape across CA/NV. By next weekend, we get quite a divergent set of solutions with the GFS tracking along I20, the ECM across WRN KS, and the FV3 in between. Each of these three has different impacts and since all the guidance has had such a hard time with the split flow forecast this season, there's no use betting on a solution. But, if one had to bet, perhaps the winning bet might be the windy solution from the ECM. Today looks to be a fairly pleasant day overall though perhaps a bit breezier than previously indicated during the afternoon hours with speeds peaking in the 10-15 mph range out west during the afternoon. Yes, certainly quite tranquil as opposed to yesterday. As the eastern zones will experience more succinctly the effects of the cold front that has moved through the region last evening, temps should be slightly cooler out across the Rolling Plains. A reinforcing surge of colder air will make its way in tomorrow morning with highs dropping 10-15 degrees over what we see today. By Tuesday morning, with the arrival of mid-level moisture and isentropic ascent, overcast conditions will set in and we start seeing precipitation across the area. The GFS/NAM have trended much warmer for Tuesday's highs...a trend not embraced by the ECM/CMC and given the low clouds and trends this season with the cold air, remain inclined to keep things on the colder side. Precipitation should taper off by late afternoon with dry conditions for Wednesday. Thursday has some hints of more precip as that next system ejects though the GFS seems to be the lone proponent. Beyond that, will just blend given the aforementioned range of possibilities. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 07