401 
FXUS63 KFGF 162027
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
227 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

There has been kind of a cooler pocket today just west of the Red
River over the northern and central Red River Valley. Temperatures
have struggled to get too much higher than zero in this area. 
Will have to watch cloud trends tonight. If the clouds hold over 
these areas, there should not be too much of a temperature drop. 
If more clearing works southward, temperatures could fall more 
than what is currently forecast. Otherwise, the snow system still 
barely glances the far southern FA, along the North Dakota South 
Dakota border, tonight through Sunday. Lighter winds today will 
turn to the north by Sunday, but still remain on the lower end.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

A potent ridge, located in the Gulf of Alaska, is currently 
influencing the H5 synoptic pattern across the continental U.S. 
Downstream of the ridge, we are seeing troughing across much of the 
western and central states with weak ridging to the east. Somewhat 
progressive flow across southern Canada will prevent Arctic air from 
moving too far southward over the next week; however, the deep 
progressive trough over the continental U.S. will keep trending 
temperatures below normal. 

Monday and Tuesday: Northwest flow will initially remain in control 
on Monday before a more progressive pattern takes shape heading into 
Tuesday. Below normal temperatures are expected with 850mb temps 
still hovering in the -15C to -20C range on Monday. This will 
progress eastward late Monday into Tuesday with below average 
temperatures persisting into Tuesday. Look for highs generally in 
the single digits above zero across much of the CWA with lower teens 
in the easternmost counties. Low temperatures Monday night will be 
in the teens below zero with wind chills as low as 35 below zero, 
especially within the Devils Lake Basin. 

Wednesday through Saturday: High temperatures will moderate from mid-
week onward through the weekend. West of the Red River, we are 
looking at continued below average temperatures with near normal to 
slightly below normal temperatures expected to the east. Progressive 
flow and lack of moisture will inhibit snow chances through much of 
the extended period with only a slight chance of snow on Wednesday 
and better chances as we head into Friday evening. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Model guidance continues to indicate not much change from current
conditions this afternoon. Later tonight, they do show cloud
heights lowering, possibly into the lower end of the VFR range.
By Sunday morning, KFAR may also dip into MVFR conditions. Wind 
speeds look to remain on the lower end throughout.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...Godon