073 FXUS63 KICT 160921 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 321 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night) Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 Forecast highlights focus around wintry weather potential and well below normal temperatures the next several days. Strengthening isentropic ascent in response to another fast moving shortwave approaching from the west will spread another round of light wintry precipitation across the region this afternoon-tonight. Forecasting the precipitation type has been challenging to say the least. Based off RAP and NAM model soundings, most of the saturation remains below 700mb, which would suggest light freezing drizzle potential. However, lower portions of the thermal profile get as cold as -8 to -10C especially across central, north-central and east-central KS, which would suggest the potential for ice nucleation supporting very light snow and/or the tiny freezing drizzle drops refreezing into very light sleet. To keep things simple, ran with a freezing drizzle/sleet/snow mix areawide. However, northern portions of the forecast area probably have the best chance of very light snow/sleet, with southern portions of the forecast area more of a light freezing drizzle/sleet mix. Regardless, snow/sleet accumulations of around a dusting are possible, with light ice accretion possible as well. Even though this is probably a borderline event, thought it prudent to issue a low-end winter weather advisory this afternoon through tonight for all counties except south-central KS given the possible very light ice accretion on pre-existing cold roads and sidewalks. The day shift will need to monitor trends to see if Kingman, Harper and Sumner counties will need to be added to the advisory. Attention then turns to possible light snow/flurries Monday- Monday evening mainly northwest of the KS Turnpike, as the stagnant western CONUS longwave trough sends another fast moving upper wave northeast across the region. Lift with this low- amplitude system is fairly weak, so accumulations will likely be no more than a dusting or so. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 Model and ensemble consensus supports a much more substantial piece of upper energy lifting out of the western CONUS longwave trough Tuesday-Tuesday night. Both the GFS and ECMWF have come into fairly good agreement, with decent run- to- run continuity. Given the expected deep lift and saturation, the probability is increasing of a more meaningful snowfall event. At this point current model trends support accumulations somewhere in the 1-4" range Tuesday-Tuesday night. Stay tuned for later forecasts as details become more refined. Model and ensemble consensus loosely support the western CONUS trough finally ejecting east/northeast sometime late week into next weekend, supporting another round or two of precipitation. However, details regarding timing and thermal profiles remain unclear this far out, so stay tuned for later forecasts. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019 MVFR cigs will prevail through much of the forecast valid period. Another round of light wintry precipitation is expected again on Saturday afternoon/evening with potential for MVFR vsbys and IFR cigs. KED && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 Fire weather concerns are expected to remain on the low side for the next several days as much colder temperatures settle over the area with several rounds of precipitation expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 27 22 36 15 / 40 40 0 0 Hutchinson 25 20 33 13 / 40 40 0 0 Newton 24 20 32 13 / 50 50 0 0 ElDorado 26 22 34 15 / 50 50 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 30 24 39 16 / 30 30 0 0 Russell 22 16 29 9 / 50 40 0 0 Great Bend 25 18 31 11 / 40 40 0 0 Salina 23 16 30 11 / 50 50 0 0 McPherson 23 18 31 12 / 50 50 0 0 Coffeyville 32 27 40 18 / 30 40 0 0 Chanute 29 25 36 16 / 40 50 0 0 Iola 28 24 34 16 / 40 50 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 31 26 39 17 / 40 50 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST Sunday for KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 3 AM CST Sunday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-083-093. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADK LONG TERM...ADK AVIATION...KED FIRE WEATHER...ADK