521 
FXUS64 KSJT 152331
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
531 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals.
A cold front has pushed through the KABI terminal a little ahead
of schedule, and based on the latest NAM data, front will reach
the other locations a few hours faster as well. Will speed up the
frontal passage timing and the arrival of northeast winds to the
sites. Will also use the NAM for a rough idea of when the winds
will being to switch back around to the south on saturday, with
gusty southwest winds arriving once again for the afternoon.
Otherwise, high clouds will continue across the area at times
through Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

A cold front that is currently stalled across the Big Country at 2 
PM CST will sink south late this evening and tonight. This will 
allow for a colder night as low temperatures look to be in the low 
to mid 30s across the Big Country. For areas in, or south of, the 
Concho Valley and Heartland, temperatures will be colder than last 
night. However, lows will only be a few degrees cooler in the mid 
40s to upper 40s. For tomorrow, breezy, gusty winds will return to 
the area during the afternoon under sunny skies. No rain chances are 
expected during the short term period of the forecast.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

Cooler air will move in with a cold front Sunday with much colder
air building in Monday and Tuesday. Moist air overrunning the 
front, may bring a chance of rain late Monday night into Tuesday 
night. GFS models has deeper warm layer aloft in the 12Z run, so 
snow potential is remote. Could see some light freezing rain, 
however, mainly across the Big Country and northern Concho Valley 
Tuesday morning...with the main hazardous potential along/north of
I-20 where Tuesday morning temperatures slip in the upper 20s.

A secondary weaker shortwave in the GFS model brings in chance of
rain Wednesday night and Thursday. Being smaller and with a dry EC
model, confidence is not high with this feature bringing in 
rainfall. However, a slight chance of rain was added, mainly in 
eastern regions of the CWA which are more favorable climate wise.
With warming and southerly winds, freezing problems Thursday 
morning are minimal, although some areas north of I-20 could 
briefly hit 32 degrees.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 34  73  43  58 /   0   0   0   0 
San Angelo 	 43  78  44  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Junction 	 48  80  49  69 /   0   0   5   0 
Brownwood 	 37  74  45  62 /   0   0   5   0 
Sweetwater 	 34  74  42  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Ozona      	 49  77  46  66 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07