570 FXUS64 KMEG 151023 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 423 AM CST Fri Feb 15 2019 .DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a surface low near Northern Lake Huron with a trailing cold front extending south into Indiana then southwest through Southeast Missouri, Central Arkansas, and into the Red River Valley of Texas. GOES-16 satellite trends indicate mostly cloudy skies across the Mid- South. As of 4 AM CST, temperatures across the area range from the middle to upper 40s near the Missouri/Kentucky border, middle 40s to middle 50s along the I-40 corridor, and middle to upper 50s south. Wintry precipitation potential tonight and additional rainfall into next week are the primary concerns in this morning's forecast issuance. A cold front will gradually move southeast through the Mid-South today. Temperatures are expected to slowly drop across the area this afternoon especially along and north of I-40 with highs ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s near the Missouri/Kentucky border, middle 40s to around 50 degrees along the I-40 corridor, and 50s to lower 60s with the warmest temperatures occurring towards Central Mississippi. Short term model trends including Convective Allowing Model (CAM) solutions indicate rain chances will increase across the forecast area into this afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley. As colder air begins to filter into the Mid-South this evening and into the overnight hours, rain may change over to freezing rain across portions of Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and far Northwest Tennessee. Short term model soundings suggest a pronounced warm nose aloft with surface temperatures initially above freezing dropping towards freezing as shallow cold air begins to filter into the region. Confidence remains low with this potential freezing rain event due to some issues with the timing of the cold air as the precipitation begins to wane across the area later this evening and especially overnight. At this time it appears that any ice accumulations may be light with any impacts mainly limited to elevated surfaces at best. Consequently, I'll continue to mention the freezing rain/light ice accumulation potential in a Special Weather Statement and hold off on the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for the time being. This wintry weather potential will continue to be monitored throughout the day as the 12Z model run begins to arrive. Stay tuned... Short term models indicate weak high pressure will filter into the Mid-South for Saturday resulting in mainly precipitation free weather. Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 30s/lower 40s northwest to lower 50s over North Mississippi. A return of rain chances is expected by Saturday night as a cold front to the south of the area returns back north as a warm front and a surface low moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Long term models indicate this front will stall over portions of the Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley as it encounters southwest upper level flow aloft. Several upper level disturbances will move along this boundary next week bringing additional rain chances to the Mid-South and the potential for heavy rainfall, especially across portions of North Mississippi and West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. Temperatures for the weekend into next week are anticipated to average near normal. CJC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Set A cold front will be pushing into the Mid-South overnight and will stall over Northeast Mississippi by 12Z. A narrow band of MVFR CIGS along the front may briefly affect KJBR, KMEM, and KMKL. Southerly winds will turn around to the NW behind the cold front. Winds will then become northeasterly by morning and will increase in speed to sustained 12-15 KTS during the afternoon hours with the exception of KTUP where winds will remain variable due to the proximity of the stalled front. A weak low pressure center will move along the stalled boundary bring a round of rain into the Mid-South during the afternoon hours. CIGS will drop through the day and will be LIFR/IFR as the precipitation spreads into the area. Cold air will filter into Northeast Arkansas during the afternoon changing rain over to freezing rain around 22Z. KRM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$