102 FXUS65 KPIH 142143 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 243 PM MST Thu Feb 14 2019 .SHORT TERM...Today and Friday. An upper level low on the Pacific coast is starting to fill and move inland. This system continues to bring moisture into our area. Expect another wave of moisture this afternoon into the evening in Southwest flow. This Southwest flow has risen snow levels to around 5500 to 6000 feet. Expect heavy snow for the Central Mountains and Eastern Highlands this afternoon and evening. Below 5500 feet expect significant rain on snow, 0.25 to 0.75 across the Eastern Highlands, Snake River plain and the Southern Highlands where a flood watch remains in effect. Ponding of water as well as elevated small streams is likely. Please see hydro section and flood watch for more information. A cold front moves through this evening into Friday morning bringing snow levels down to the valley floor. The GFS model brings another wave of moisture through Friday afternoon into the evening. The NAM12 model doesn't start this wave until Friday evening. Expect 1 to 4 inches of snow for valleys along the Eastern Magic Valley, Southern Highlands, Snake River plain, and Eastern Highlands. Expect 4 to 6 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts, for mountains including the Central Mountains, Carbiou Range,Marsh and Albion Highlands as well as the Eastern Highlands along the Wyoming border. Wyatt .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday. Drier conditions are expected this weekend, but still might see some chances of snow. An upper trough remains over the western US through much of the long- term period, though the upper flow will be weak. Snow bands, should they develop, should be weak and disorganized Saturday and Sunday. Accumulations will be rather light as well. As we head into Monday, an upper trough will drop in from the north. This will bring some better snow chances, mainly to the Central Mountains. Accumulations Monday and Monday night again will be on the light side...about 1 to 3 inches. That upper trough will pass through on Tuesday while we get a brief period of drier weather Tuesday afternoon, but we will see another trough move in from the northwest as early as Tuesday night. GFS and ECMWF keep a broad upper trough over the West through Thursday, but the GFS is a bit more progressive while the ECMWF cuts off an upper low over California. Hinsberger && .AVIATION...A couple more waves of precip will move through this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures are warmer today and tonight, so precip should fall as rain across the Snake Plain. Snow is expected at KSUN and KDIJ, though some rain may mix in with it. Flight categories will fluctuate as precipitation falls this afternoon and evening. The stronger wave of precip will be tonight along a cold front, and will generally lead to IFR or LIFR conditions. HRRR and other high-res models suggest a brief heavy band of precip moving through with tonight's wave, so conditions could drop to airfield minimums temporarily. Winds are expected to increase along the front, but will taper off by sunrise. Hinsberger && .HYDROLOGY...Warm temperatures along with rain on snow continues to melt away the snow over the Eastern Magic Valley through the Snake River Plain up to around Blackfoot. This extends to the adjacent valleys into the South Central and Southeast Highlands. This will cause ponding of water in low-lying areas below 5500 ft as well elevate flow in small streams. A flood watch remains in effect through late tonight for those areas. Keeping drains open well help minimize ponding of water. Hinsberger && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for IDZ051-054>059-062. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MST Friday for IDZ071>075. Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for IDZ060-062>067. && $$