557 FXUS62 KTAE 141139 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 639 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2019 .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a scattered to broken upper level cloud deck moving eastward through the day. Calm winds this morning will become southerly around 5-10 knots during the day. && .PREV DISCUSSION [346 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... Low level ridging will move eastward today, allowing a return flow of low level Gulf moisture to begin by the late morning. At the upper levels, the shortwave over the eastern Gulf waters will move across the Florida Peninsula for the day as the right exit region of the southern stream jet moves into the southern Mississippi Valley. This will cause an increase in upper level cloudiness, but otherwise mean a dry, but warmer day today with highs mostly in the mid-upper 60s. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]... Northern stream shortwave activity is forecast to remain confined to the northern half of the CONUS through the period. This leaves a mostly zonal regime aloft across the Southeast. At the surface we'll reside on the western side of low-level ridging with return flow in place. A frontal boundary is forecast to move into the Southeast, but stall due to the zonal flow keeping the shortwave activity north of us. Thus, we'll become established in a steady WAA regime, with moderating highs and lows and an almost unmentionable chance for rain in the very weak upslope regime. .LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... The upper-level pattern will begin to amplify over the western CONUS on Sunday as a strong shortwave drops down the Pacific coast, but it will get transported through southwesterly flow aloft and end up not being able to force the front through the Southeast. Instead, the amplifying western CONUS trough will result in divergent flow aloft over the stationary boundary and add some large scale lift to the low-level upslope forcing. While the front will sag a bit further south and rain chances will becoming more likely, the bulk of the lift and heavy rain will remain north of the Tri-State region and thus widespread rain amounts are currently not expected to exceed 1-2" with this system. Otherwise, the stretch of above average temperatures will continue with highs nearing 80 and lows in the 60s. .MARINE... Sub-headline winds and seas are forecast through the weekend before Cautionary conditions creep back into the forecast by Tuesday. .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions continue today with relative humidities dropping into mid 20s. However, given the recent rains lately and lighter winds expected, advisory level criteria is not expected to be reached. Relative humidity will be back in the 40s to 60s tomorrow. .HYDROLOGY... Insignificant rainfall amounts are forecast through the weekend, with our next best shot for widespread meaningful rain coming early next week. At this time we look to be on the southeastern edge of the heaviest rain that is forecast next week. Thus, our highest rain amounts will be across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, and looks to peak around 1-1.5". .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 68 41 72 57 76 / 0 0 0 10 10 Panama City 65 54 68 62 71 / 0 0 0 10 20 Dothan 67 48 71 59 74 / 0 0 0 20 20 Albany 66 44 71 57 75 / 0 0 0 20 20 Valdosta 68 44 74 55 77 / 0 0 0 10 10 Cross City 71 43 74 56 75 / 0 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 62 51 67 61 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Nguyen SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM...Harrigan AVIATION...Nguyen MARINE...Harrigan FIRE WEATHER...Nguyen HYDROLOGY...Harrigan