829 FXUS64 KHGX 140144 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 744 PM CST Wed Feb 13 2019 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Overall forecast looks on track with latest trends in temperature/dewpoint along with sky cover. A cirrus shield should persist for much of the night and might be thick enough to limit some radiational cooling. Low temperature forecast as for mainly 50s and a few upper 40s. This looks good for the most part but new guidance is showing temperatures overnight a degree or two higher than before. This was adjusted in the forecast for tonight. Temperatures tomorrow in the 70s look on track as boundary layer flow increases from the SW/W. Overpeck && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 523 PM CST Wed Feb 13 2019/... .DISCUSSION... Cirrus spilling down atop mid to upper ridging with this afternoon's Central Gulf Coast surface high continuing a progressive eastward movement off the U.S. eastern seaboard through tomorrow morning. This has opened the way for return flow with these onshore winds being the dominant wind pattern through Saturday. This warm air advection/moisture flux will subsequently warm days back into the middle to upper 70s by as early as tomorrow but most likely occurring Friday and Saturday. As the region falls downstream of an approaching Sunday front, southwesterly flow will kick in and aid in this late week warm up. Forecast maximum temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 F will be within 5 degrees of middle 80 F maxT records. Average middle 60 F dew points over near 60 F water temps will increase the threat of Friday or Saturday morning nearshore/bay sea fog. As of now, moderate confidence of (fog) occurrence as the southwesterly component of the wind is not conducive for any significant sea fog formation. The next chance of rain will be on Sunday along and ahead of the next cool frontal passage. Sunday's front is timed to come through during the daytime hours and increase shower chances into the slight to low end category. Offshore winds will veer around to the east Monday and, with lowering southern Texas surface pressure, pick up the probability of more areawide light precipitation due to more efficient isentropic upglide. POPs will stay high through Tuesday as the next cold front approaches and comes across the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Sunday through Tuesday will be mainly overcast, unseasonably cooler and periodically wet from return showers. The bulk of the rain is forecast to fall from Monday evening through Tuesday morning due to higher pwats, slightly more diffulent mid- upper layers and the weak lift provided by the passage of Tuesday's boundary. 31 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Likely VFR throughout this forecast cycle. Some pieces of guidance are suggesting MVFR ceilings for a few hours early tomorrow morning, but not enough confidence to include it here. More likely will be lower ceilings beyond the end of this forecast period, so I begin to hint at that with FEW references towards the end of the forecast for several terminals. Focus should mainly be on winds otherwise. Most are southerly and will remain so through the night, though IAH has backed to southeasterly - that site should join the others in a few hours. Winds look to back off, but not go calm tonight, then become gusty tomorrow around mid-day or early afternoon. .MARINE... High pressure has moved east of the region and onshore winds have redeveloped over the area. Low pressure is in the process of developing in the lee of the Rockies and the gradient between the these features will tighten tonight into Thursday. Have issued a SCEC for the offshore waters for tonight. A moderate onshore flow is expected Thursday and Friday as the low near the Rockies elects eastward and a trailing trough of low pressure lingers over the central pains. Dew points will increase Friday and Saturday and will reach the mid 60's by Saturday morning. The SREF is showing some potential for sea fog Friday morning with a better chance on Saturday morning. Surface winds show a S-SW trajectory and this is generally not favorable for sea fog. A cold front will cross the coastal waters late Saturday night into early Sunday. A moderate N flow is expected in the wake of the front. The flow will veer to the NE on Monday and strengthen as a weak coastal trough tries to develop over the western Gulf. A SCEC/SCA will be required Sunday night into Monday. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 50 74 55 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 51 74 57 78 63 / 0 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 57 70 59 70 63 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday morning for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...Overpeck