043 FXUS62 KMHX 130626 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 126 AM EST Wed Feb 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaching from the west this afternoon will move through the area tonight. High pressure will build in from the southwest Wednesday and Thursday. Another front will impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 115 AM Wed...Line of prefrontal showers and thunderstorms now moving offshore, with some light rain still over the Outer Banks. The cold front has moved into the coastal plain, and likely extends along a line from Williamston to Kinston, to Kenansville. Temperatures have dropped into the 50s behind the front, but further east are still in the low to mid 60s. Expect temperatures to drop fairly quickly as the front heads east, with most locations dropping into the 50s over the next couple hours, and into the 40s over the coastal plain. By daybreak, expect lows in the low to mid 40s inland, and the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast. Some additional shower activity is evident behind the front on radar currently, and forecast guidance continues this area of light showers or drizzle over Eastern NC through the early morning hours. Have extended chance to slight chance PoPs through sunrise this morning as a result. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... As of 3 PM Tues...West-northwesterly (downsloping) flow in the low levels and troughing aloft will combine to bring a dry, seasonable day to eastern NC. Breezy conditions in the morning will gradually subside through the day as high pressure builds across the Southeast. Temps will generally follow a diurnal curve, with highs within several degrees of 60 for most, with sunshine filtered by scattered cirrus coverage. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Wed...Dry and warm weather Wednesday night and Thursday gives way to unsettled weather Friday night into Saturday. Periodic bouts of unsettled weather are possible for the weekend into early next week although confidence is lower than average. Wednesday night thru Thursday...High pressure initially centered over the Gulf Coast Wednesday night will traverse the region and shift offshore Thursday evening. Wednesday night will be mainly clear with light winds and expect most areas to drop into the mid 30s inland, low to mid 40s Outer Banks. Southerly return flow begins Thursday afternoon as high pressure shifts offshore with only a few clouds until evening, so favoring warmer guidance for Thursday with highs generally in the mid 60s. Friday through Tuesday...Guidance struggling to come into agreement Friday onward on the location of a stalled front on Friday evening, and the tracks of multiple waves of low pressure thereafter. Friday begins with a shortwave trough digging into the Great Lakes, and associated occluding surface low over Ontario draping a cold front south into the southeast U.S. The front will not have a lot of moisture to work with in our area as it approaches and guidance is mostly dry for most of the day. Cannot rule out some scattered showers ahead of the front with better forcing to the north. Model guidance is in agreement that the cold front will stall in an east-west orientation Friday night as the northern stream shortwave lifts north leaving more zonal flow over North Carolina. The biggest point of contention is where the stalled boundary ends up, since this has implications on where a series of lows track in response to weak shortwaves within the flow. The ECMWF keeps the boundary well to our north near the NC/VA border, while the GFS drags the front south of the forecast area closer to Wilmington. Periodic chances of rain appear likely regardless of where the boundary sets up, although the ECMWF solution would favor higher chances for the northern half of our area. Not going beyond high-end chance on any particular system for now due to model differences. Highest confidence elements of the forecast is for rain on Saturday and a short dry period on Monday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through Thursday Morning/... As of 120 AM Wed...VFR conditions are present across the airspace this morning, and are expected to continue through the rest of the TAF period. There could be some brief MVFR ceilings across the coastal plain over the next few hours, but overall the atmosphere will be drying. Expect only some high clouds across the airspace by later this morning, and for the rest of today. Also, gusty winds will continue through the day as well gusting 20-25 kts at times. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 330 PM Wed...High confidence in VFR conditions Thursday. Increasing clouds late Friday with the approach of a cold front, with increasing chances for rain and periods sub-VFR conditions Saturday likely. Some gusty SW winds ahead of the front on Friday morning and afternoon are possible. Sub-VFR conditions could linger to the end of the period as the front stalls and periodic waves of low pressure traverse the region. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Wednesday/... As of 7 pm Tues...Zones in good shape. No changes made. Marine conditions will deteriorate this evening as a strong LLJ develops ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusty southwest winds will bring seas to 5 to 8 ft late tonight, and Small Craft Advisories are on order for the coastal waters, sounds, and the Alligator River. Winds will shift westerly and remain gusty behind the front Wednesday morning, gradually weakening through the day Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the southwest. Accordingly, seas will gradually subside as the flow turns offshore, remaining around 4 to 6 ft through Wednesday afternoon. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 330 PM Tuesday...Winds and seas will remain elevated into Wednesday night before subsiding Thursday into Friday with SW/W winds 10-15 knots or less and seas running 2-4 feet. Winds and seas increase to 15-20 knots Friday into Saturday just ahead of and behind cold front. Gusty NW winds late Saturday will build seas to as high as 6-7 feet especially for northern waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ130- 131-135-150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...HSA/CB LONG TERM...CTC/MS AVIATION...SGK/MS MARINE...HSA/MS/CB