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FXUS64 KLUB 130504 AAB
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1104 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Wind
speeds will remain up through the night and increase to around 20
knots for KPVW and KLBB.  Wind speeds will remain lower at KCDS.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
After northwest flow aloft tonight, quasi-zonal flow will be the
rule with near constant surface low pressure leading to
breezy/windy periods along with warm and dry. A weak impulse
skirting the northern plains Wednesday will lead to increasing
breezes in the afternoon, while stronger low pressure passes east
through the Prairie Provinces Thursday leading to stronger winds.
Early Friday should briefly be between systems with a temporary 
upper ridge passing early before height falls deepen the surface 
low once again in the afternoon and another windy day ensues. 
Saturday looms potentially as strongest wind potential ahead with 
a formidable low pressure system advancing from the west coast 
into the central plains.

Following this strong system, we should expect a dump of cold air
Sunday most likely persisting into the middle of next week as
future systems look capable of deepening over the southwestern
U.S. or even perhaps into northwest Mexico. But models wobble out
of phase by then with confidence somewhat diminished, especially
regarding potential moisture availability. We retained minimal
light snow/rain potential in the southwest panhandle Sunday night
and across the area Tuesday with systems in that time range.
RMcQueen

FIRE WEATHER...
The first extended period this year of elevated to critical fire 
weather is expected between Wednesday and Saturday as surface low
pressure becomes near-constant across the Panhandle and South 
Plains while a series of disturbances pass just to the north. The 
ERC values were starting out slightly or significantly below 
normal for this time of year and may take a few days to rise into 
more potent range. As such, even with increasing wind Wednesday, 
this makes it difficult to justify as Fire Weather Watch to match 
neighboring areas of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. 
By Thursday, a stronger wave to the north could ramp winds higher 
and by then ERC's may be responding above the 50th percentile. 
Fire Weather Watches will become increasingly likely Friday and 
Saturday as the prolonged warm, dry, and windy pattern continues. 
An even stronger storm passing north Saturday may provide the 
greatest potential for widespread fire weather concerns. Then, 
this will be followed by dump of cold air that will keep fire 
weather levels lower into next week. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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