612 FXUS63 KFSD 121727 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1127 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 532 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019 Have updated the forecast this morning to increase winds a bit faster than the previous forecast. At this point, still don't have the falling snow and the gusty winds overlapping. Given this is the case and lapse rates in the near surface layer are not all that steep, am not expecting visibilities to fall to 1/2sm or less for extended periods of time, so will not issue an advisory at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 313 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019 Weak lift within the stratus field across the area leading to some light snow across the region this morning. This should gradually work east through 15Z or so, with clearing skies lagging 5-7 hours behind. Increasing northwest winds ushers in colder temperatures across the region. As we remove the blanket of clouds, expect temperature to warm substantially through mixing. Will see wind gusts increase throughout the day. With the gusty winds, expect some blowing snow today. Blowing snow model suggests that if snow was falling in northwest Iowa, there would be the potential for advisory level conditions. Given the falling snow across the area comes to an end before the winds increase in the east, will not issue a headline for blowing snow. With temperatures falling into the single digits above and below zero tonight, will see wind chills approach advisory level. At this point, do not have widespread winds chills at -20 or colder to warrant an advisory, but is something to keep an eye on. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 313 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019 Wednesday looks more mild with mostly clear skies and an increasing southeast wind. Have raised highs in the Missouri River Valley where there is limited snow pack. Further to the north, have tempered the potential warming. Cold front moves through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. At this point, models are not in agreement with the timing of the front. Have been watching a wave move through the area interacting with the front. 00Z models suggest moisture problems with the wave, but this is not entirely supported by ensemble members. Each parent model still has a few members that produce snow across the region, so while the forecast has trended dry, all hope is not lost at this point. Another shot of cooler air works down the first half of the weekend. A series of waves moves into the plains over the weekend as an upper trough shifts east. With the upper jet centered across the center of the country, could see some additional enhancement from the upper levels. For now, have left blended pops Saturday night into Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019 MVFR and IFR conditions will continue mostly along and east of Interstate 29 as well as highway 14. This will mainly be due to northwest winds gusting to 35 to 40 mph causing blowing and drifting snow. Once the wind diminishes early this evening, VFR conditions are expected. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for SDZ038>040-054>056-061-062-067. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ071- 072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022-032. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...BT SHORT TERM...BT LONG TERM...BT AVIATION...08