593 FXUS61 KCLE 121611 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1111 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure will track northeast across the southern Great Lakes today and tonight, bringing a warm front north into the area followed quickly by a cold front this afternoon and evening. The low will slowly move into Quebec by Wednesday, with a secondary trough moving east across the area. High pressure will build east across the area Wednesday night and Thursday before another low tracks east across the Great Lakes Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Temperatures continue to warm over Lucas county and we have allowed the Ice Storm Warning to expire. Rain has diminished a bit across the western areas. Expecting wrap around moisture to flow back into the area this afternoon with more shower activity to develop. Will keep flood watch going at this time across the area. Original discussion... A dynamic weather system will continue to bring the threat of freezing rain to northwest Ohio and northwest PA this morning, widespread rainfall today into tonight leading to potential flooding, strong winds tonight into Wednesday, and scattered snow showers late tonight through Wednesday, with accumulating snow possible, especially across the snow belt. First things first, the ongoing transition from freezing rain to rain across parts of the area. Above freezing temperatures continue to slowly work northward across the area this morning, as an area of moderate precipitation over Indiana/western Ohio begins to lift northeast through the area. Extended the duration of the headlines across northwest Ohio this morning for couple of hours to account for potential slippery conditions an hour or two after the transition to rain. Ice accumulations across far northern Wood and western Ottawa are very close to Ice Storm Warning criteria, however will continue to message near one quarter inch amounts in the advisory with the transition to rain hopefully occurring in the next 4 hours. No major changes to the headlines/ice accumulation totals across northwest PA, with the event unfolding as anticipated. Once we transition to mainly rain later this morning, the threat for flooding will increase across the area as temperatures begin to rise into the 40s with a warm front lifting north into the area ahead of strong low pressure moving towards the area. Overall, kept total rainfall amounts similar to previous forecast, with generally around an inch west to one an one quarter to one and a half inches east. The rain will be steady and moderate at times through midday, then a bit of a lull can be expected until a more convective line of rain showers moves northeast through the area as an occluded front associated with the passing low lifts through the area. Will keep the flood watch as is for now. A one-two punch of winds and falling temps is expected behind the occluded front, with strong winds preceding the falling temps. A wind advisory will likely be needed for much of the area with west-southwest gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected. Decided to let the day shift handle the wind advisory after the ice threat has passed and some better clarity on the flood headlines has occurred. Temps will very quickly fall below freezing tonight as the low exits east out of the Great Lakes, with precip transitioning to snow. There may be a brief lull in any snow showers as the dry slot of the system rotates through the area, however a mid level vort max, surface trough and wrap around synoptic moisture rotates through the area late tonight into Wednesday. Snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across the area late tonight through Wednesday, with some lake enhancement/upslope bringing the potential for 2 to 4 inches across the snow belt in NW PA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... By Wednesday night a ridge will be moving across the area and putting an end to any remaining light snow showers across the far east. The next shortwave from the Pacific Northwest/western Canada will reach the Great Lakes for Thursday night/Friday. Spread of solutions beginning to narrow with the Canadian remaining a southeast outlier. With that, southerly flow on the backside of the ridge will begin to warm us quickly on Thursday. Sticking with highs in the lower and mid 40s with rain showers moving in to the western areas by Thursday evening. The cold front Friday morning will usher in colder air and transition precip back over to snow with some light accumulations possible. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Overall the weekend is looking decent, but cool. High pressure will extend across the Great Lakes from the northern Plains Saturday. A system for late in the weekend has considerable spread and questions on whether the high can hold. Will have low precip chances for the possibility it affects the Ohio Valley. Highs look to stay close to 30 with lows in the teens. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Low pressure will move through the region during the period. Widespread rain and IFR/low MVFR conditions expected for the first half of the period. Some FZRA expected early at KTOL before a quick transition to RA. Rain will diminish behind a cold front near/after 00Z, with some SHSN possible toward the end of the period. Winds will generally veer from east/southeast to south through the day, then sharply west/southwest behind the front tonight. Gusts of 30-40 knots possible after 03Z through the end of the period. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Non-VFR again likely Friday into Friday night. && .MARINE... A stiff northeast wind will veer to the southeast and south as deepening low pressure passes just northwest of the lake late this afternoon. Winds will be strong off of Erie PA this afternoon from stronger downslope winds. But in the wake of the low southwest Gales are expected for this evening and tonight across the entire lake. West-southwest Gales continue into Wednesday evening although the western basin may relax some before then. This will likely cause water levels to lower below the critical mark for safe navigation for Wednesday morning. Winds will begin to diminish Wednesday night as high pressure works overhead for Thursday. The next low now looks to track across the central Great Lakes later Thursday and take a cold front across Lake Erie early Friday. High pressure pushes in from the northern Plains Saturday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ003-006>014-017>023- 027>033-036>038-047-089. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ001>003. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Low Water Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>144-162>164. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>149-162>169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Lombardy SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Greenawalt MARINE...Oudeman