563 FXUS62 KFFC 120608 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 108 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 710 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019/ PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 240 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... Wedge finally loosening its grip on the forecast area. Still expecting temperatures to remain nearly steady through the evening then start rising as we head into the early morning. Will start to see some scattered showers developing across the area through the overnight, but better coverage and intensity of precipitation remains north and west of the forecast area through much of tonight. Band of stronger convection moves across from northwest to southeast early tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon. Still not expecting much instability, but marginal CAPE and moderate dynamics combined with strong frontal lift should result in at least isolated thunderstorms. Although convection should remain relatively shallow, strong shear along and just ahead of the front means we cannot rule out an isolated damaging wind gust or weak rotation. We will need to keep a close eye on things as the main line of convection passes. Precipitation moves out of the forecast area tomorrow evening with dry and cooler air spilling in behind. Winds will be borderline advisory level in the higher elevations by tomorrow morning, but should remain below except along the highest ridges. 20 LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... Only a few tweaks to the long term. Overall the forecast remains the same with a series of short waves in the westerly flow aloft that will affect our area. The next system will move across Thursday night through early Saturday. Thunder still looks possible with this short wave. Next in line will be the Sunday night into Monday. The previous discussion is included below. 41 PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019/ LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/... The long term portion will begin with an exiting storm system with the GFS slightly faster in clearing things out than the ECMWF. By 12Z Wed though, both models indicate clearing skies as surface high pressure builds into the lower Mississippi Valley with cold air advective pattern emerging. Temperatures Wed afternoon look to be some 10 to 15 degrees below those 24 hrs prior but still right around climo. In fact, with zonal flow aloft, just not alot of cold air to be had as temps on even the coldest night will only reach freezing at the highest elevations of the mountains. Next system now on tap for Thu night into Friday. Main energy source in the form of a mid level trough remains over the northern plains with limited lift over the local area. However, enough deep layer moisture and surface convergence exists to allow for likely to categorical pops through Fri afternoon. Limited instability available but enough to warrant slight chance thunder for a majority of the area. Weak high pressure builds in its wake with no real cold air to speak of as zonal flow aloft continues to dominate the pattern. Deese && .AVIATION... 06Z Update... LIFR cigs largely prevail at TAF sites early this morning. LIFR cigs will remain largely prevalent through the morning with only gradual improvement into IFR range by 14-16z. Vsbys in the IFR/LIFR range will also remain possible through this time. Scattered showers will occasionally affect ATL/AHN Taf sites this morning. A line of heavier showers and a few embedded thunderstorms along a cold front will approach ATL area TAF sites 16-18z with the highest probability of TSRA 17-21z. Current SE winds will shift to the SW by 14-16z with gusty W to NW winds at 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25kts behind the cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening. Cigs will gradually become VFR after 00z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence on ceiling and vsby timing. High confidence on other elements. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 68 37 59 35 / 80 30 0 0 Atlanta 67 36 55 37 / 80 20 0 0 Blairsville 60 30 50 30 / 90 20 0 0 Cartersville 65 34 54 33 / 90 10 0 0 Columbus 72 40 60 37 / 80 20 0 0 Gainesville 64 35 54 34 / 90 30 0 0 Macon 73 39 59 34 / 80 30 0 0 Rome 64 34 54 33 / 90 10 0 5 Peachtree City 68 36 56 33 / 80 20 0 0 Vidalia 80 44 62 38 / 50 60 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW AVIATION...RW