338 FXUS63 KICT 112346 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 546 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 311 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 Main concern is potential for freezing drizzle later this evening across central Kansas. Vorticity center within mean upper trof was located over southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico this afternoon. Lift ahead of this feature will increase across the area this evening with best chances for showers/isolated thunder for the Oklahoma border counties of far southern Kansas. Expect areas of drizzle/fog further north across central Kansas before subsidence sets in behind departing upper trof after midnight. This will likely become a period of freezing drizzle in vicinity of and north of the I-70 corridor, so plan to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for several counties of central Kansas until midnight. Otherwise, a return to sunshine and near seasonal temperatures expected on Tuesday and even warmer with increasing south winds on Wednesday. Shallow cold air looks to settle south across Kansas during Thursday with greatest impact along the I-70 corridor in the afternoon. Darmofal .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 311 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 Confidence is rather low at the moment for the end of the week and weekend with regard to Wintry precip chances. There is general consensus in building a high amplitude ridge/blocking pattern over the northern and eastern Pacific with lowering downstream heights/troughing across the western and northern CONUS. This will support a colder regime with temperatures much below climo again. However timing and amplitude of individual shortwaves within the downstream flow across the Plains is somewhat uncertain. Forecast consensus supported showing periodic modest chance PoPs throughout the latter portion of the forecast, though confidence on day to day trends/predictability are low. KED && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 Widespread LIFR and IFR cigs continue to dominate the region as low level moisture remains very high. Also seeing widespread MVFR vsbys from drizzle and fog as well. With that said, expect improving aviation conditions after about 6-9 hours, as a shortwave across the southern plains, and a low pressure area across northern OK will sweep east of the area late this evening. As this sweeps east, a wind shift to the north-northwest will sweep colder and drier air initially into central KS and eventually across the whole area overnight. Am a little a concerned that as the colder air moves into central KS, could a brief window for a few hours of drizzle and temps falling below freezing for a freezing drizzle chance near KRSL and possibly KGBD. Otherwise plan on improving trends late tonight. The colder and drier air will eventually lead to the low level moisture scouring out most of the LIFR and IFR cigs, with VFR conditions returning to most locations for Tue morning. Ketcham && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 The return of gusty south winds and unseasonably mild temperatures will elevate the grassland fire danger on Wednesday afternoon across portions of south central and southeast Kansas. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 27 49 28 59 / 40 0 0 0 Hutchinson 25 49 26 58 / 40 0 0 0 Newton 25 46 27 57 / 40 0 0 0 ElDorado 27 47 27 58 / 40 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 28 50 28 60 / 60 0 0 0 Russell 22 48 24 57 / 60 0 0 0 Great Bend 23 48 24 58 / 60 0 0 0 Salina 24 46 25 57 / 60 0 0 0 McPherson 24 47 25 58 / 50 0 0 0 Coffeyville 31 49 27 60 / 70 10 0 0 Chanute 28 46 26 58 / 50 10 0 0 Iola 28 45 25 57 / 50 10 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 29 47 26 59 / 60 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ032- 033-047-048. && $$ SHORT TERM...KED LONG TERM...KED AVIATION...Ketcham FIRE WEATHER...KED