498 FXUS61 KCAR 112227 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 527 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Strong Canadian high pressure will build from the west through tonight and move east Tuesday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Tuesday night and track across the Downeast region Wednesday. The low will then exit across the Maritimes Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... The Canadian high builds steadily tonight and crests over the area by midday Tuesday. This means clear skies will continue until high clouds overspread the area from south to north during Tuesday. Most of the area will be cloudy by later Tuesday afternoon. The building high will also gradually suppress the gusty winds we've had today. It will take some time for the winds to diminish this evening, but stability will gradually increase and low-level mixing will end after midnight. A shallow radiation inversion will yield subzero temps for most the forecast area except near the coast. Some readings approaching minus 20F will be possible in the some of the usually colder spots in Aroostook County by daybreak Tuesday. In terms of Tuesday's high temps, there will be warming aloft all night into Tuesday, but don't expect much mixing and what does occur will be shallow. This means highs won't increase as much as H925 temps would suggest. Highs will reach the upper teens north and low to mid 20s towards Bangor and the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Have upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings across most of the forecast area, with the exception of the Downeast coast where a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect. Low pressure will track across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night, while a secondary low intensifies along the New England coast. Snow will expand northeast across the forecast area Tuesday night, reaching the Saint John Valley late. Models are in better agreement that the secondary low will track across interior Downeast areas Wednesday. This will allow warmer air to move onshore across Downeast areas through the morning into early afternoon allowing the snow to mix with, or transition to, sleet and freezing rain. Enough warm air could reach the coast to allow a transition to rain. Colder air wrapping around the low should then allow a transition back to snow through the late afternoon into the evening. North of a line from Dover-Foxcroft to Topsfield, expect precipitation to remain in the form of snow Wednesday which could be heavy at times. The surface/upper low will exit across the Maritimes Wednesday night, with a deformation zone extending back across northern Maine. The deformation zone will help support steadier snow into the early morning hours Thursday across northern areas where additional light accumulations are expected. Storm total snow accumulations through early Thursday morning are generally expected to range from 10 to 15 inches across northern and central portions of the forecast area. More uncertainty exists across Downeast areas, depending on the amount of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Generally expect snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches across Downeast areas with the greater totals across interior areas with lesser totals toward the coast. Sleet accumulations could be up to around an inch, with around a tenth of an inch of ice. The Winter Storm Watch remains in effect along the Downeast coast due to the uncertainty with precipitation types. Snow showers could linger across mostly the north and mountains Thursday, with decreasing clouds Downeast. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected across northern areas Wednesday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Downeast Wednesday. Near normal level temperatures are expected across the region Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure tracking northwest of Maine will draw a warm front across the region Friday with a chance of snow. Enough warm air could be drawn north to allow the snow to mix with rain Downeast. A cold front will then cross the region Friday night through early Saturday with snow showers north, rain/snow showers Downeast. Could still have a chance of snow showers across the forecast area Saturday. High pressure should cross the region Sunday into Monday though low pressure could begin to approach later Monday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday. Below normal level temperatures are expected Monday. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. This afternoon's winds will steadily decrease this evening and will be light on Tuesday. As these winds decrease tonight, some LLWS will be possible...mostly north of HUL. SHORT TERM: Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels, from southwest to northeast, across the forecast area Tuesday night. IFR/LIFR, with local VLIFR, conditions are expected across the region Wednesday through early Wednesday night. Snow is expected across northern areas Wednesday, with snow transitioning to a wintry mix Downeast. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across northern areas later Wednesday night with VFR/MVFR conditions developing Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains Thursday, with VFR conditions Downeast. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to develop Friday then persist through early Saturday. VFR/MVFR conditions are expected later Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will maintain the current Small Craft Advisory as currently advertised. Moderate freezing spray is expected this evening into early Tuesday morning and have issued another Freezing Spray Advisory as a result. SHORT TERM: A Gale Warning has been issued effective from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon. Small craft advisory conditions are then expected Wednesday night through Thursday. Visibilities will lower in a developing wintry mix Tuesday night, with the wintry mix persisting Wednesday into Wednesday evening. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for MEZ001-002. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 PM EST Wednesday for MEZ015>017. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 11 PM Tuesday to 5 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052. Freezing Spray Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...MCW/Norcross Marine...MCW/Norcross