654 FXUS62 KMHX 111923 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 223 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A front will linger off the coast tonight. A cold front will approach from the west Tuesday and cross Tuesday night. High pressure will build in from the southwest Wednesday and Thursday. Another front will impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 PM Monday...Widespread rain will cont next several hrs per rdr showing good cvrg lifting NE across ern NC. Deeper moisture will grad push off the cst later this evening with precip tapering off from W to E. Appears very little rain will occur after 06Z so cont just slight pops most areas. Low lvls remain saturated and expect low stratus and some fog to cont all night. Temps wont drop significantly with lows in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... As of 220 PM Monday...Widespread low clouds and fog early shld slowly lift and sct out as area gets in the warm sector ahead of approaching cold front. Forcing and moisture look limited thru the day with little if any precip expected...cont low chc pop near cst for poss some shra coming off wtr...otherwise slight pops and most spots will see no rain. Temps tricky as will depend on low clouds sct out...thinking will see peaks of aftn sun and cont prev fcst trend with warm highs upr 60s/lower 70s inland with 60s beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 PM Mon...Unsettled to start the period, then high pressure returns by mid week with yet another system impacting the area late in the week. Temps will be above climo through the period. Tuesday night...Precip chances increase Tuesday evening as increased forcing occurs as the cold front approaches and moves through the area. Have likely pops Tue night ahead of the cold front where a bkn line of convective showers and perhaps an iso thunderstorm move through, though instability looks quite marginal at this time. Wednesday through Thursday...High pres builds in near or south of the area mid week. Flow will remain zonal however, and thicknesses/hts remain above normal, therefore expecting continued warm temps behind the front, with highs in the 60s most areas, with some 50s on the OBX. Coolest night will be Wed night with dry high pres overhead and light winds, though only dropping to near climo with readings in the 30s inland to 40s beaches. It will be quite dry and breezy Wed afternoon due to dry diabatic warming off the Appalachians, and RH vals expected to plummet into the 20s percentile. Friday through Sunday...A robust upper trough and frontal system approach the are late in the week with rain chances increasing through the day Friday and into Friday night. There is generally good agreement in an unsettled period from Friday into Saturday morning, but some timing and precip coverage remain. The GFS develops a low along a southern stream shortwave south of the area, which could act to interrupt moisture transport locally. However, this feature is weaken in other global guidance, so likely pops remain in the forecast for overnight Friday. Strong low lvl jet is possible with this system. Should instability develop with the decent dynamics of this system, a severe threat may develop. The strong return flow ahead of the front will bring additional warming Friday with highs expected well into the 60s with some lower 70s possible, and even warmer if the sun pops out. Winds will be quite gusty especially Friday night ahead of the front, then again on Sat as gusty winds turn westerly. Have highs around 60 for Saturday but will dependent in timing the front, how deep the trough is, and how quickly CAA ramps up behind the front. High pressure builds in from the northwest Sunday with mainly sunny skies and breezy conditions with CAA easing through the day. Highs expected in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Tue/... As of 1155 AM Monday...Widespread IFR or worse in stratus expected thru Tue morn. Areas of rain will cont thru early/mid evening then expect rain to taper off and end however will likely see some fog with low lvls saturated. Low clouds will be slow to erode Tue but as warm sector becomes established expect low clouds to lift and sct out by around midday. Appears better chc of shra and poss a tsra will hold off til very late Tue or Tue evening. Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 330 AM Mon...Cold front and showers/isolated storms arrive late Tuesday afternoon and especially Tue evening with chc of sub VFR. VFR returns by Wednesday into Thursday as high pres builds in. A late week system will likely bring sub- VFR conditions Friday into Friday night. Winds will be gusty southerly on Tuesday afternoon and evening with gusts as high as 20-25 kt, then westerly on Wednesday behind the cold front. Gusty winds expected again Friday ahead of the late week frontal system. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Tue/... As of 220 PM Monday...NE winds 10 to 15 most wtrs this evening with high pres nosing in from the N and front offshore. Winds become light later tonight and early Tue as ill defined front lifts N into the region. SSW winds grad ramp up later Tue as grdnt tightens ahead of approaching front with speeds 15 to 25 kt by evening. Seas of 2 to 4 feet this evening will subside to 2 to 3 feet early Tue then build back to 3 to 5 ft late Tue. Started SCA central and srn wtrs late Tue for the increasing winds and building seas. Long Term /Tuesday night through Sat/... As of 220 PM Mon...Gusty SW winds of 20 to 30 kt Tue evening ahead of cold front become W late as front moves offshore. Added nrn wtrs and Pamlico Sound to SCA for Tue night into Wed. seas will build to 5 to 9 feet late Tue night and early Wed. High pressure builds in Thursday with N/NW winds 15 kt or less, gradually veering to south to southeast in the afternoon and evening as the high begins to migrate offshore but remaining below SCA criteria. Swrly winds increase again on Friday ahead of the next frontal system with strong SCA probably Friday and could see a period of Gales Friday night. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...TL/CB AVIATION...RF/TL MARINE...RF/TL