077 FXUS62 KILM 111422 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 920 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front just offshore will push on shore and north by Tuesday bringing a big warm-up ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will precede the cold front Tuesday evening. Dry high pressure will prevail Wednesday into Thursday. A warm front will lift north of area by Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase ahead of a cold front late Friday, with drier air spreading into the Carolinas next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 920 AM Monday...Have not made any forecast changes at this time but anticipate that some may be needed soon pending the arrival of a little more guidance. Namely-wedge of cool air likely to hold in place across most if not entire CWA and temperatures may need to be trended downward. Incoming visible satellite imagery will also help to aid in this decision. As of 330 AM Monday...Latest sfc analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary positioned just offshore. The position of this front will largely dictate temps/dewpoints today, with quite a gradient already evident across the front. With strong high pressure to the north and latest guidance, think that for the most part the wedging/cool side of the front will win out today, save for possibly areas right along the coast where temps could potentially reach the 60s. Elsewhere highs in the 50s are expected for the bulk of the forecast area. As for precip, expect occasional showers through the day especially over west/north areas in association with weak warm air advection aloft. Not expecting any heavy precip. The front will try to nudge farther north again tonight, with rain chances ending from west to east. With light winds and near saturation, included patchy fog over all areas. Low temps in the upr 40s to lwr 50s. Break in the rain is expected to continue through midday Tuesday aside from a spotty shower ahead of the next cold front which crosses the area Tuesday night. PoPs increase to chance-likely by late aftn. With the warm front finally moving north through the area and southerly flow developing, temps will climb into the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Cold front will move through the forecast area Tues eve. A warm air mass will begin the period with temps in the 60s Tues eve and dewpoint temps in the mid 50s most places. CAPE, although weak, looks a bit more impressive than previous model runs, but with loss of heating, it will be mainly elevated. Another important factor is lack of deep moisture. Soundings only show moisture up through 7 to 8 k ft, with dry mid to upper levels. Overall, expect a brief opportunity of showers between 7 and 9pm west of I-95 and 8 to 11p across the rest of the area with best chc right ahead of the front. Pcp water reaches up above 1.5 inches during this time. Overall expect gusty showers or an isolated thunderstorm with marginal wind threat at best, as low level winds reach up to 40 to 50 kts. After midnight, strong westerly flow will dry out the area as high pressure builds in behind the cold front. Pcp water values will drop below a quarter of an inch by morning and air mass will remain very dry as high pressure migrates across the South through Wed night. Overnight lows Tues night will remain near 50 in most places. Temps will be relatively cooler on Wed but a fairly warm start to the day, downslope flow and plenty of sunshine will offset the CAA to bring temps just into the 60s most places. Overnight lows will down into the mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...High pressure will migrate across the Southeast on Thurs reaching off shore by afternoon. This will lead to warming in a light southerly return flow. Expect temps to reach into the mid 60s with plenty of sunshine. Warming will continue into Fri in increasing southerly flow. Clouds and showers will increase through Fri into Fri night as next storm system affects the area. Could see some decent QPF with this system, especially late Fri into Fri night. As this system lifts north, it will drag a cold front across the area on Saturday. Much drier air will bring sunshine back by Sunday. Temps into the 70s on Fri will drop back down into the 50s to near 60 for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows over the weekend will be in the 30s. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 12Z...VFR continues at all terminals. Expect MVFR to develop over the next few hours, especially inland. Showers will affect inland terminals this morning, moving eastward throughout the day with a coastal front. Expect showers to develop at coastal terminals by noon. Showers will remain light and isolated throughout the day, so impacts will be limited. Conditions will deteriorate throughout the day as MVFR becomes IFR. Inland terminals will see IFR this afternoon, the exact timing is still uncertain. Coastal terminals will hang on to the warm air for a little bit longer, so MVFR should continue through 00Z. All terminals will reach IFR overnight. Fog is possible tomorrow morning at all terminals, but confidence is low at this time. However, confidence is slightly higher at the inland terminals and, thus, have introduced in the TAF. Extended Outlook...Possible MVFR/IFR conditions associated with the passage of a warm front early Tuesday. The warm front will be followed by the passage of a cold front early Wed. VFR conditions will develop Thu as high pressure ridges over the region. A warm front will push north across the area on FRI with MVFR conditions possible. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM Monday...Benign marine conditions today with a stationary frontal boundary in the vicinity. Expect mainly light/variable winds with 2-3 ft seas. Similar winds/seas tonight, however the threat for sea fog increases. The sea fog may continue into early Tuesday, before southerly flow ramps up ahead of the next cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible by Tuesday afternoon, but more likely starting Tuesday evening. Cold front will sweep across the area waters late Tues eve. Expect SCA conditions late Tues through early Wed. Strong southerly winds up to 15 to 25 kts ahead of the front Tues eve will push seas up to 5 to 7 ft. Winds will veer around remaining strong behind cold front after midnight but the off shore flow will keep the highest seas further off shore. Winds and seas will diminish through Wed as high pressure builds in. Decreasing off shore flow will allow seas to settle below 4 ft by Wed eve, decreasing further as winds lighten as center of high migrates across the waters early Thurs. As the high shifts farther off shore, a return flow will develop with southerly winds increasing late Thurs into Fri as next storm system approaches. Winds and seas may once again reach into SCA thresholds late Fri. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...21