584 FXUS63 KDLH 110538 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1138 PM CST Sun Feb 10 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 914 PM CST Sun Feb 10 2019 After getting several reports near Duluth of 2 to near 5 inches, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for southern St. Louis and Carlton counties. Another 1 to 2 inches is possible, as indicated by the short term hires models, into Monday morning. Have dropped the Winter Weather Advisory for Sawyer and Price counties as little accumulation has occurred. Made some other minor changes. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 234 PM CST Sun Feb 10 2019 Snow will continue to spread through the Northland through this evening. The culprit negatively-tilted mid-level wave in the north- central US will weaken as it lifts into the northern Great Lakes region. Leaned on the RAP, HRRR, and 4km NAM for timing and additional precipitation through this evening because the models were reflecting the snow well. An additional 1 to 3 inches is expected for areas of east- central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, and along the Minnesota North Shore, through this evening. The snow on the North Shore will have lake and terrain enhancement because of the easterly winds across the region crossing Lake Superior and inputing extra moisture. The greatest total snow from this system should be in northwest Wisconsin, where up to 4 inches is anticipated in areas of Sawyer and Price Counties. There will be lingering lake effect, terrain-induced snow showers along the Minnesota North for the remainder of the night and into Monday with the ongoing cold, easterly wind flow. There should be little if any additional snow accumulation through Monday afternoon. Overnight low temperatures will range from near 0 degrees near the Canadian border to the single digits across the rest of the region. Monday will remain cloudy with highs ranging from the upper teens along the Minnesota North Shore to the lower to middle 20s across the rest of the Northland. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 234 PM CST Sun Feb 10 2019 The storm system for late Monday and Tuesday has slowed down a tad and drifted a little to the southeast. So, in this package have snow beginning Monday night after 00Z except along the North Shore where lake effect could begin as early as Monday afternoon. Amounts are fairly similar to the overnight shift with 6-9" across NW WI, and 3- 6" for Minnesota. Models have taken the surface low associated with this system southeast of Chicago which will likely move the heaviest QPF centroid with this system to the southeast of our forecast area. A winter storm watch has been issued to highlight the potential for heavy snow in NW WI and Pine County in MN. I put an extra line of "buffer" counties for any shift in the storm track to the NW, but this isn't likely given the trajectory and trends of the storm thus far. As always, concerned about the amounts northwest of the watched area because QPF will likely drop off significantly - especially this far from the low pressure center. There is an inverted trough on the NW side of the system that extends up into Canada, and this may further sap moisture and spread it across a large area reducing the snowfall amounts on the MN side. If I were to put numbers on confidence, about 80 percent confident in warning criteria being reached in Price County WI, about 50 percent confident in Douglas County WI; meanwhile for the Twin Ports I'm only 10 percent confident. After this system passes, the rest of the week doesn't look too bad. A weak short wave crosses on Thursday night brushing the far southern portions of the forecast area with some light snow which shouldn't amount to much accumulation. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1138 PM CST Sun Feb 10 2019 Upper level short waves moving through the area continue to generate MVFR cigs, with periodic VFR cigs/vsbys. Light snow will also be affecting the terminals occasionally, but difficult to time with low confidence and have a VCSH mention. Some IFR cigs are possible in the more robust areas of snow. Gusty surface winds will develop by mid day Monday. Another round of snow will arrive toward the end of the forecast with MVFR vsbys/cigs at BRD/HYR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 7 18 15 21 / 90 20 60 90 INL 1 21 13 22 / 30 0 30 70 BRD -1 23 17 25 / 40 10 80 80 HYR 11 26 20 24 / 90 0 70 90 ASX 10 25 17 22 / 90 0 50 90 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for WIZ001>004-006>009. MN...Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for MNZ038. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for MNZ037. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...GSF SHORT TERM...Grochocinski LONG TERM...Wolfe AVIATION...GSF