594 FXUS63 KMQT 102249 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 549 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 403 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a shortwave trough into the upper Mississippi Valley that supported an area of snow from eastern MN through WI and much of Upper Michigan. At the surface, light east winds prevailed between high pressure over northern Ontario and a trough from Kansas toward the southern Great Lakes. Tonight, Models and radar/satellite trends suggest that the snow will continue increase over Upper Michigan late this afternoon into this evening supported by deep layer 280k-295k isentropic lift and 850-600 fgen. As the supporting dynamics weaken and lift off to the northeast the snow should diminish by late this evening. Models consensus QPF values to around 0.10 inch along with snow/water ratios in the 15-20/1 support additional snowfall amounts of an inch or two. This is also consistent with the 1-1.5 g/Kg available in layer of max isentropic ascent. 850 mb temps around -15C with ese low level winds could bring some LES or lake enhanced snow into far north central Upper Michigan near Big Bay into the Keweenaw from KCMX northward. However, any additional snow amounts should be minimal, an inch or less. Monday, mid level ridging and subsidence building over the area should bring mainly dry weather. However, persistent east to ese low level winds could still generate some light LES over the north into the Keweenaw. Temps will recover toward seasonal averages with highs in the lower 20s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 403 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2019 A shortwave will bring a deepening system into the region Mon night and Tue, keeping the surface to 850mb low on a track from southern Lake Michigan through Lake Huron. Models are in good agreement overall, but the latest CMC-NH run is an outlier as stronger and farther NW. This results in moderate to heavy snowfall moving in from the S late Mon night into Tue afternoon. Lighter snow will linger through the evening, and will then transition to NW wind LES Tue night into Wed. E to NE winds will enhance snowfall some over the N-central U.P. and also lead to blowing snow in areas exposed to those wind directions on Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. Total snowfall through Tue evening is currently expected to be 6-8" over all but the Keweenaw Peninsula which has 4-6". Much of that will fall in around 6 hours or possibly less late Mon night into Tue afternoon. Amounts may still change some as models have had some variability over the last couple of runs. Otherwise not looking at anything significantly impactful in the rest of the long term. Models are showing a significant winter storm in the region late in the week, but all are in agreement in keeping associated precip SE of the CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 549 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2019 Snow spreading northward into Upper Michigan will bring IFR conditions into this evening at all sites. Conditions will improve to MVFR later as the light snow moves out. Will go briefly VFR at IWD at times late tonight and again Mon afternoon. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 403 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2019 A low pres system lifting from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes region next week may bring a period of east winds of 30 to 35 knots on Tue. Northerly winds into the 30-35 knot range are also expected Friday. Otherwise, periods of heavy freezing spray are expected into next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday for LSZ240>242-263. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB