481 FXUS62 KILM 100215 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 915 PM EST Sat Feb 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure across the eastern U.S. will move offshore Sunday night, allowing a warm front to move into the Carolinas Monday. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will precede a cold front Tuesday. Cooling and drying can be expected Wednesday into Thursday in wake of the front, while a stronger cold front will bring a good of chance of showers on Friday. Drier air will move into the Carolinas next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 915 PM Saturday...IR satellite imagery reveals skies have cleared across the northern half of our forecast area, however a dense and stubborn streak of mid-level clouds remains across South Carolina from Florence and Kingstree into Myrtle Beach. Models show this streak of 700 mb moisture clearing off the coast around 06Z (1 AM) so I'll continue to indicate clearing skies overnight in the forecast. Hourly temperatures beneath these clouds were running a few degrees warmer than forecast, but elsewhere it appears the going forecast is pretty good. I am making small downward adjustments to forecast low temps around Wilmington and Burgaw where cold advection draining out of far- eastern North Carolina should have the most bite overnight. The 00z MHX sounding showed this incoming shallow cold airmass extending up to around 3000 feet AGL and that it's low level thermal profile matched virtual GFS/NAM soundings pretty closely. Discussion from 600 PM follows... Latest models show low-level cold advection will continue overnight on weakening northeasterly winds. Most locations should keep some wind blowing even late tonight. This combined with the fact soil temperatures are still quite warm from the unseasonably warm weather we had earlier this week should keep temperatures on the high end of the MOS guidance envelope tonight. I like the dayshift's forecast numbers (lower 30s north of a line from Florence and Marion to Loris to Wilmington) and no significant changes are needed at this time. Discussion from 330 PM follows... Steady stream of mid level moisture from the southwest is leading to somewhat erratic temperature readings this afternoon and will probably play a significant role in Sunday morning lows. Overall high pressure will continue to build down from the midwest through Sunday and move offshore Sunday night. Guidance is insistent on at or below freezing temperatures for Sunday morning but with mid and high clouds I have my doubts. Guidance has been performing poorly to put it nicely the past few days as well. Later Sunday into Monday morning a return flow develops with the coastal trough developing right on queue. Adjusted pops to delay onset to the final few hours early Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 328 PM Saturday...Warm frontal, low-end QPF rain lingers into Monday, 1/3 inch or less in most areas, < 1/10th in others. Strong warming Tuesday to ensue, and increase winds, and Td climbs to 55-60 degrees. The higher 1/3 values of both MU/ML CAPE around 750 J/kg so this warrants a slight chance of TSTMs. The quick-natured movement of the front and scattered lay-out of showers to likely result in low rainfall tallies on Tuesday as well, though some areas locally will receive beneficial rain. Max-T to climb well into the 70s Tuesday ahead of the vigorous front and instability and peak warming align well, boosting the chance of a cloud crackle. As the surface front increases its distance from the Mother Low Tuesday, the front itself will be in a gradual weakening phase, and the severe threat right now appears low despite a low end chance of thunder. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 328 PM Saturday...Drying trend to begin this period as continental high pressure migrates into and across the area from a southerly plains trajectory. As such, with weak CAA and downslope flow, highs Wednesday and Thursday to rise above normal by several degrees. All this to bring about a good deal of sunshine minutes Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Progression continues however and another, seemingly stronger frontal passage is timing-up for Friday, with also stronger instability. As a result have brought in a slight chance of a TSTM on Friday as well, and the system takes a path to pick up Gulf moisture on its way here. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 00Z....Predominantly VFR with surface high pressure set up over the eastern US. Things begin to change towards end of forecast period as warm front approaches from the south. Scattered cirrus tonight before lower clouds, between 5 and 10 kft, move inland from offshore in the morning, and subsequent additional moisture moving in from the south early afternoon. Chance for MVFR ceilings to develop at the tail end of the forecast period, but confidence too low with timing to include in TAFs at the moment. Winds to remain out of the northeast between 5 and 10 kts. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR Sun with high pressure dominating. For Mon thru Wed, possible MVFR/IFR conditions and rain associated with the passage of a warm front during Mon followed by the passage of a cold front early Wed. && .MARINE... /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 915 PM Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions continue across the coastal waters this evening due to both winds and seas. Latest check of the buoys shows seas have risen by 0.5 feet since the 6 PM update, now 4.5 feet at the Cape Fear nearshore CORMP buoys and 7 feet at Frying Pan Shoals, now firmly in-line with our going forecast. Discussion from 330 PM follows... A northeast flow will continue through late Sunday courtesy of high pressure building in from the midwest. Wind speeds will be just over 20 knots this afternoon and evening and begin a slow decline later tonight. Speeds will drop to just over ten knots late Sunday before a weak onshore flow develops. Small craft advisory seas are pretty much in place and will continue through about midday Sunday with no changes to the current advisory. Briefly, expect light and veering winds Monday through Tuesday morning, before a marked increase in wind-speeds during Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front passage near evening over the waters. A few TSTMs will be possible late in the day and evening near the front. Advisory conditions will be approached with 5 ft seas offshore and 20 kt wind gusts, but currently just below at this time. This will be co-joined with building SE waves every 6-7 seconds, as a large fetch region points this way, positioned north through east of the Bahamas. Winds to shift to NW Wednesday in wake of the front, with diminishing wind-speeds middle to late afternoon. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252. && SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...VAO