495 FXUS61 KAKQ 100017 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 717 PM EST Sat Feb 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure prevails over the Mid Atlantic region tonight, and then slides offshore Sunday. Low pressure approaches from the southwest Sunday night as a cold front drops into the region from the north. This cold front settles into the Carolinas Monday, and then returns north as a warm front Monday night into Tuesday. Another cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 400 PM EST Saturday... The current surface analysis places a large sprawling 1045 mb arctic high extending from the Canadian Prairies through the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. Locally, colder air has arrived, albeit substantially modified. Temperatures this aftn range from the upper 30s to low 40s, with a 10-15 mph N wind, and thinning cirrus. A portion of the high builds into the area tonight and remains ~1040mb. Radiational cooling conditions should be rather ideal tonight, with perhaps the exception of the immediate coasts of SE VA/NE NC where a light NE wind will likely continue. Clear and chilly tonight under a clear sky with lows in the mid/upper teens from the Piedmont to the MD Ern Shore, with low/mid 20s for coastal SE VA/NC NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 PM EST Saturday... Surface high pressure slides offshore and weakens Sunday. Mostly sunny to start but clouds increase during the day with WAA aloft. Forecast highs Sunday range from the low/mid 40s from the Piedmont to the Ern Shore, with mid/upper 40s over SE VA/NE NC. A weak cold front approaches from the NW Sunday night and drops through the area Monday morning as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Low pressure tracks along the boundary bringing increasing chances for primarily rain. However, there will be a few exceptions, which are the NW Piedmont and MD Ern Shore. Thermal profiles will warm aloft, and mid-level Tw values support liquid. At the surface, pcpn will fall into what will initially be a dry airmass and temperatures are expected to fall to ~32F, so there is the potential for some freezing rain mainly along and N of a LKU-SBY- OXB line. There is a potential for a light glaze of ice, mainly a few hundredths of an inch late Sunday evening into the early overnight hours. Lows Sunday night range from the low 30s far NW/N to the mid 30s central, and near 40 SE. The front settles over the Carolinas Monday as high pressure builds into New England. WSW flow aloft will continue to overrun the low- level cool air, which will continue to result in high PoPs and persistent light rain during the day Monday. Most guidance supports temperatures 'warming' enough to support only rain by Monday morning. Cloudy, damp, and cool Monday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 30s/around 40F N, to the mid/upper 40s SE. An in-situ CAD-wedge set-up will linger Monday night into Tuesday morning as high pressure slowly retreats off the New England coast. A more substantial area of low pressure will then lift into the Great Lakes by Tuesday, with a trailing cold front pushing across the mountains leaving much of the local area within the warm sector (with the exception of the far NW). Thermal profiles have warmed substantially and only liquid pcpn is expected at this time. There is a minimal chc of thunder over SE VA/NE NC Tuesday aftn. Forecast highs Tuesday range from the mid 40s far NW to the low/mid 60s SE (with mid/upper 60s possible). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 PM EST Saturday... Dry WNW flow aloft is expected Wednesday into Thursday. Mild Wednesday and Thursday with downslope flow with highs in the mid 50s to around 60F. Forecast lows are in the upper 30s to upper 40s Wednesday morning and in the 30s by Thursday morning. 09/12z models bring another chc of rain by Thursday night/Friday as another low pressure system pushes through the Great Lakes and allows warm air to overspread the region. Cooler and drier by Saturday behind a cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 700 PM EST Saturday... High pressure has moved in over the area this evening, bring clear skies throughout the night and into the late morning on Sunday. High to mid level clouds will move in tomorrow afternoon after 18z. CIGs will lower from 15k ft to 7k ft across most TAF sites during the afternoon and into the evening. NE winds will continue to decrease tonight and become variable during the morning. Winds will turn more southeasterly Sunday afternoon ahead of the low pressure system. Warm front will begin to move north from the Carolina Sunday evening ahead of a low pressure system that will bring periods of light rain along with stratus. The best potential for IFR conditions is Monday into Monday night and Tuesday morning. Low pressure will track through the Great Lakes Tuesday, with the associated cold front approaching from the W Tuesday aftn and evening, bringing a additional chc of showers. Drier conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure returns. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM EST Saturday... Late this aftn, sfc high pressure was centered over Michigan and building ESE. This high was providing northerly winds 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt over the waters. Waves were 2-3 ft over the Ches Bay and Seas were 3-6 ft over the coastal waters. Will maintain SCA's until 7 pm for the Ches Bay zns and the Currituck Snd, and thru this evening for the srn two coastal zns. Otherwise, the sfc high will build ESE and down over the area tonight thru Sun morning, then slides off the coast later Sun into Sun evening. NW-NE winds will become NE tonight into Sun morning while diminishing. Variable winds around 10 kt or less are expected Sun aftn into Mon morning, then stronger NE or E winds later Mon into Tue morning, then SE or S becoming SW Tue aftn into Tue night in advance of a cold front. W or NW winds late Tue night into Wed night, as the cold front exits and high pressure builds in fm the WNW. The next opportunity for elevated winds/waves/seas comes Mon evening into Wed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...AJZ/CRP MARINE...TMG