380 FXUS61 KBGM 091013 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 513 AM EST Sat Feb 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Lake effect snow will linger across portions of central New York through tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure over Upper Midwest this morning will build eastward toward our region. The high progresses of the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. A weak low pressure system passing nearby to our south could bring a light coating of snow to the area Sunday night. A stronger storm system will track to our west across the Great Lakes region early next week with a secondary low developing along the Mid-Atlantic coast. This system will bring a period of accumulating snow starting Monday night before a transition to a wintry mix is likely on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Early morning surface analysis shows a 1047 mb arctic high centered over the Upper Midwest. A strong pressure gradient between this high and low pressure located over the Canadian Maritime has been responsible for the brisk W-NW winds over our region since yesterday afternoon. Some modifications were made to the Wind Advisory based on recent observations and the latest forecast guidance. The advisory was cancelled for the the Finger Lakes and Steuben County as winds have dropped off to below 40 mph since last evening. There was consideration to drop the rest of the advisory, but opted to keep it going with BUFKIT soundings from various models supporting a brief potential for gusts in excess of 45 mph just after sunrise this morning. Although the Winter Storm Warning (N Oneida County) and Winter Weather Advisory for Lake Effect Snow remains unchanged, refinements to the snowfall forecast were made. The anticipated southward movement of the lake-effect snow (LES) band has yet to materialize. Accordingly, the bulk of the accumulating snow thus far has remained just north of Syracuse so far. The steadier snow should start to shift southward toward daybreak, resulting in some slippery travel on the NY Thruway from Syracuse to Utica this morning. Given the rather diffuse/cellular structure of this LES band, additional accumulations should be limited to 1-3" in advisory area. The steering flow will veer from about 290 to 310 degrees which will favor a southern shift in the LES activity into eastern portions of the Finger Lakes and the Susquehanna region of CNY late this morning and early afternoon. Snowfall accumulations will be light. The other story today will be the cold. Temperatures in the teens combined with sustained winds of 15-25 mph, wind chills are below zero across CNY and high elevations in NEPA early this morning. Temperatures will rebound into the lower to mid 20s this afternoon which is around 10 degrees below climo. The pressure gradient will weaken tonight as high pressure builds over the northern Mid Atlantic tonight. The winds will gradually subside tonight but we should quickly lose the gusts after sunset. Low temperatures in the low to mid teens will be commonplace. The snow shower activity coming off Lake Ontario is expected to lift back across the far north, yielding another inch or two of snowfall for northern Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties tonight. High pressure will remain in control of our weather for most of the day on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate slightly toward climo (maybe a few degrees below) but the cold on Sunday won't feel as bad as today owing to the light winds. High clouds overspread the area during the afternoon. Light snow showers could arrive in our western zones late in the day as the next storm system approaches from the south/west. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 230 AM update... Sunday night a weak system moves east through the area with light snow. Up to an inch of snow expected with the highest amounts from the central southern tier of NY to the Wyoming Valley of NEPA. A weak front with an upper level short wave will combine for some weak lift and moisture convergence. Lows from mid teens to lower 20s. On Monday with high pressure nudging down into northeast NY, temperatures rebound into the upper 20s to mid 30s far south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 230 am update... An unsettled period with two storms. Both main surface lows pass to the west of the area. This means mixed precipitation. Temperatures on the mild side but not as warm as the last 2 days. A rapidly strengthening stacked low pressure system will rotate into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. This cyclone will push a warm front across NY and PA initially. Snow is forecast to fall Monday night into Tuesday. Snow could amount to several inches before a changeover to sleet, freezing rain, and rain Tuesday afternoon and night. Warmer air will move in Tuesday and Tuesday night as the warm front lifts through. The triple point will form a coastal low but too far southeast of our area to have any affect. For Wednesday the stacked low moves east across southeast Canada. This will keep light rain and snow across the area with the best chance in the far north such as Syracuse and Rome. More snow showers possible into Thursday again with the most in CNY and less in NEPA. Highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. High pressure will be briefly over the area Thursday afternoon before another system approaches. Models in much less agreement on this storm Friday and Friday night. Again it looks like a snow to mixed scenario to snow on the back side Saturday. Temperatures could peak near 40 Friday. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Breezy W-NW winds 15-25 kt continue to gust 30-35 kt (with isolated 40 kt) at C NY terminals overnight. Expect these winds to gradually diminish during the day today with gusts of 25-30 kt late this morning and less than 25 kt this afternoon. Lake-effect snow showers off Lake Ontario continue to cause LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KRME overnight. This band has struggled to progress southward as winds haven't changed direction much over the past few hours. These snow showers should eventually make it into KSYR between 07-09Z with IFR or LIFR restrictions possible at KSYR at times between 09-13Z. Additional lake-effect snow showers off Lake Erie will progress across the Southern Tier. This may cause brief MVFR or IFR restrictions at KBGM before 08Z but otherwise this activity is rather disorganized and light. Conditions should improve to VFR at KRME toward sunset as the LES band shifts to the south. End time of the snow showers is a little more uncertain at KSYR- best guess is sometime between with a gradual improvement is 14-16Z. These snow showers look to reach KITH and KBGM this afternoon but restrictions will be limited as the activity is expected to become increasingly disorganized and light. NW winds decrease to 10 kt or less tonight. Generally VFR is expected tonight. However, a temporary/localized restriction to MVFR is possible at KSYR and KRME with additional lake-effect snow showers. Outlook... Sunday....VFR with a light W wind. Sunday night...Light snow overspreads NEPA and CNY. MVFR, perhaps temporary IFR, restrictions. Winds shift out of the N but remain light. Monday...VFR. NE winds under 10 kt. Monday night through Tuesday night... Sub-VFR (perhaps as low as LIFR for some terminals) with snow overspreading the area Monday night into Tuesday. A change to a wintry mix (sleet/freezing rain) is expected to occur from S to N Tuesday afternoon. A changeover to rain is possible late Tuesday in the warmer valleys (e.g., KELM and KAVP). Wednesday...Precip should change back to snow as it ends from west to east. Flight restrictions due to low CIGs are likely to continue. Wednesday night and Thursday...Improvement to VFR favored south of the I-90 terminals. However, low CIGs and light snow showers could linger at KSYR and KRME. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ009-017-018- 036-037-044>046-057. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ009. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ018-036-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JRK NEAR TERM...JRK SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...JRK