123 FXUS61 KBGM 090001 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 701 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push south into the region tonight with some lake effect snow in the typically favored locations that lasts into Saturday. For Sunday and Monday, high pressure will build in them move through the area. A low pressure system will move northeast into the region on Tuesday bringing the next chance of precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front will push southwest into the region tonight. However, the winds will still be out of the west to west northwest given the strength of the system that moved through today. Our two main weather concerns are the wind and lake effect snow potential as a result. For the wind, wind gusts from 30 to over 45 mph have been observed. Short range modeling such as the HRRR and a look at Bufkit soundings do show the potential for top gusts to increase a bit in portions of the Finger Lakes, NY Thruway and Southern Catskills areas in NY with some gusts around 50 mph. These gusts may bring down some trees and wires locally, so the wind advisory will continue into the day Saturday for these locations. The advisory was also expanded further south from portions of the Finger Lakes eastward to Cortland county with this forecast update. Winds will decrease gradually during the day Saturday as the pressure gradient relaxes but it will still be gusty with some 25 to 35 mph gusts in the morning. As for the lake effect snow potential, Preference went toward the HRRR, NAM-nest and RGEM models for QPF and location of the main band of snow tonight into Saturday morning. This band should gradually develop through the early evening with the loss of instability which is causing a more cellular look on radar currently with the snow. Model agreement is fairly good on the overall setup that this band starts off in northern Oneida county then very slowly move south to around Syracuse for a time overnight. The band then diminishes to snow flurries and showers in the morning. A very tight gradient is expected with snowfall amounts with the highest amounts from 6-8 inches in western Oneida county and little to snow just south of Syracuse. While the winds will be high and travel impacted due to blowing and drifting snow we are not expecting to meet the visibility criteria of 1/4 mile needed for a blizzard headline. Headlines will be maintained with a winter storm warning for NW Oneida county and advisories further south. Lows tonight should fall into the 10's tonight with only a rebound into the 20's due to the cold air advection. While clear, the airmass will modify some only sending temperatures back down into the 10's. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Sunday will be fair and cool before snow showers spread into the forecast area Sunday night into early Monday. A dusting to an inch of new snow accumulation is expected. Temperatures will fall into the upper-teens and lower-20s. Temperatures will rebound on Monday into the lower or middle-30s ahead of the next approaching storm system. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A rapidly strengthening stacked low pressure system will rotate into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. This cyclone will push a warm front across NY and PA initially. Snow is forecast to fall Monday night into Tuesday. An included front will transport warmer air into our region Tuesday night. The models suggest a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will result, though our far southern counties might change over to rain if enough warm air advances into PA. The storm will finish on Wednesday with a mix of snow and rain before tapering off late in the day. The lakes will become active behind the front on Thursday with scattered snow showers, mainly over Upstate NY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A westerly flow of dry air will bring mostly VFR conditions to the TAF sites this period. Exception will be at SYR and RME where lake effect snow showers will bring IFR restrictions beginning this evening and continuing for much of the night. The band will weaken and move northward on Saturday returning all stations to VFR. A tight pressure gradient will keep gusty WNW winds through the period. Outlook... Saturday afternoon... Any restrictions from lake effect snow showers and flurries lifting to VFR. Northwesterly wind gusts from 15 to 30 knots decreasing throughout the afternoon. Saturday night through Sunday....VFR. Sunday night through Monday... VFR with a few snow showers around which could cause brief visibility reductions Sunday night. Monday night through Wednesday... MVFR and IFR with snow developing Monday night then potentially changing to a wintry mix on Tuesday. Low ceilings likely to persist into Wednesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ009-015>018-022- 023-025-036-037-044>046-057. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ009. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ018-036- 037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...DGM/MWG