220 FXUS62 KMLB 081535 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1035 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019 ...An Unusually Warm Early February Day... ...Breezy/Windy With Rough Surf and Isolated/Scattered Showers This Weekend... .UPDATE... The western extent of the Atlantic ridge axis will erode as a weak front moves into northern Florida and the Gulf of Mexico today. As the surface ridge effectively collapses over the area, winds will remain light, though they will develop an onshore component this afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Meanwhile, high pressure will remain firmly in control aloft resulting in strong subsidence and mostly clear skies. Another unusually warm early February day is expected with temps climbing to near 80 along the coast and in the low 80s across the interior. Enjoy the pleasant weather while it lasts as conditions will begin to deteriorate overnight. Weekend (From Previous Discussion)...Frontal boundary is forecast to stall over central Florida as strong high pressure to the north builds over the area. Tightening pressure gradient will produce breezy conditions (windy at the coast) and rough surf. May need to consider a High Surf Advisory for Volusia/Brevard counties but this event looks brief in duration. Increased moisture off the Atlc will focus bands of showers crossing the coast esp Brevard and Volusia counties and spreading well inland in fast flow. Have increased rain chances to 40-50 percent across the north half of the forecast area with shower coverage decreasing southward to 20 percent over Martin county. Clouds and scattered showers will produce noticeably cooler max temps Sat with highs in the upper 60s Volusia county and low to mid 70s Orlando/Cape. Less cloud cover and precip across the Treasure coast should allow temps to reach the upper 70s. Coastal communities should remain very mild Sat night due to breezy East winds holding temps to the upper 60s. On Sunday, persistent clouds and scattered showers should hold coastal Volusia to the lower 70s but a little more solar heating should produce upper 70s/near 80 elsewhere. && .AVIATION... Continued VFR through late tonight as high pressure weakens over the area in advance of the next cold front. The front will encroach our northern areas beginning Saturday morning, with strengthening onshore (east) winds spreading down the coast through the day. Increasing coverage of low-clouds and rain showers expected to bring periods of MVFR cigs/vsby that will spread from north to south during the day. && .MARINE... Today...Nice day for boating as high pressure weakens overtop the area. Winds turning to the northeast, at or below 10 knots, as the Atlantic sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Seas 2 feet nearshore, up to 3 feet offshore. Tonight...Conditions will begin to deteriorate as E/NE winds increase to 10-15 knots. Then, as the cold front begins to push into the northern waters early Saturday morning, northerly winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots over the Volusia County waters, with seas building to 3-4 feet. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly from north to south on Saturday as a northeast wind surge presses down the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 79 57 68 62 / 0 10 50 50 MCO 82 59 73 63 / 0 10 40 40 MLB 79 63 74 68 / 10 20 40 40 VRB 79 63 76 67 / 10 20 20 30 LEE 81 59 70 59 / 0 10 30 40 SFB 82 57 71 62 / 0 10 50 50 ORL 83 60 72 62 / 0 10 40 40 FPR 79 62 76 67 / 10 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 10 PM EST Sunday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM EST Sunday for Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Monday for Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Monday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm. && $$ Ulrich/Sedlock