821 FXUS63 KDLH 070543 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1143 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 912 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 Snow continued to expand in coverage this evening. A narrow band of moderate to at times heavy snow was over the Brainerd Lakes to Pine City into Medford as of 03Z and it will continue to lift north. Snow has also increased over far northern Minnesota and the southerly band will also move through those areas as it lifts north. Few changes were made to the going forecast. We did get reports of 2 to 3 inches of snow over our northwest Minnesota area out of the FGEN band prior to 6 PM. The 00Z NAM shows a strong area of FGEN, especially around 700MB over/near northern Itasca, Koochiching, and northern Saint Louis Counties developing between 03Z and 06Z. The 18Z GFS is much weaker. If the NAM is correct, locally higher snowfall will be possible over far northern Minnesota. Some freezing drizzle/rain will remain possible over parts of northwest Wisconsin tonight but most snow is expected with the band lifting north this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 342 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 The main concern for the short term is widespread snow through Thursday evening and a potential for freezing rain this evening over portions of northwest Wisconsin. An area of low pressure over central Colorado this afternoon will lift across the Plains and the Midwest tonight through Thursday night. An area of 925-600 mb frontogenesis was found over southeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, which had produced impressive snow amounts to our west. Still think snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible this afternoon over our northwest zones. Winter Storm Warning which was issued this morning for those areas remains on track, albeit with a slower onset of precipitation than earlier forecast. Another band of frontogenetic forcing for ascent stretched from southwest Minnesota to northwest Illinois and is forecast to lift northeastward into our southern zones this evening. Look for a relatively narrow band of moderate to heavy precipitation oriented west-northwest to south-southeast to lift into the Northland between 00Z and 03Z and will arrive in our northern zones between 06Z and 09Z tonight. Temperatures aloft may be warm enough for a period of freezing rain with this band over portions of Sawyer, Price, Ashland, and Iron counties this evening. Onshore flow off Lake Superior will boost snowfall amounts along the North Shore as far south as the Twin Ports. Have upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for much of northern Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin. Our zones in central Minnesota remain under a Winter Weather Advisory and there is a possibility those areas will need to be upgraded with subsequent updates. Thursday morning large scale forcing for ascent will be found across much of the area with a complicated thermal pattern aloft. Several regions of frontogenesis are forecast, which may enhance snowfall rates over central and northeast Minnesota. Thaler-QC progs indicate strong omega over much of the Midwest Thursday with the strongest forcing for ascent moving from southeast Minnesota during the early afternoon to western Upper Michigan by evening. The combination of strong forcing and a tightening thermal gradient aloft over northwest Wisconsin should result in a third round of moderate snowfall, especially over Iron, Ashland, and Price counties. Have upgraded Winter Weather Advisories to Winter Storm Warnings over northwest Wisconsin largely due to the intense snowfall expected Thursday. The system pulls away from the Midwest Thursday night with snow tapering off from southwest to northeast. Lake effect snow showers are likely in the northwest Wisconsin snowbelt areas into Friday morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 342 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 Northwest flow aloft covers the region Friday while high pressure is building in from the west. This will bring an end to the light snow in the morning, with some lake effect potential in the afternoon. Warm air advection will occur through the day along the south shore which will limit any lake effect. This scenario continues into the evening and have small pops in Iron County. The ridging moves overhead late Friday night through Saturday morning. A fast moving piece of energy in the fast flow aloft will result in some pops being needed Saturday afternoon through the evening. Upper level and surface ridging are in charge late Saturday night and Sunday, remaining over the region through Monday morning. Monday afternoon finds a long wave trof moving out into the lee of the Rockies. Model differences with pieces of energy lifting northeast out of the base of the trof and how it affects the region. Used a blend which placed pops over the western third of the forecast area. Model differences grow quite large in trying to resolve the progression of the trof and whether to develop one or two closed lows, or just leave an open wave. Used a blend to resolve these differences and placement of pops. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 Widespread snow was occurring over much of the Northland late this evening but it will diminish for a time tonight, mainly over southern areas. Widespread MVFR and IFR ceilings will occur through most of the period. The visibility will range from LIFR to MVFR for most areas through the period. Snow will diminish from west to east Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. There may some freezing drizzle for a time tonight, from the Brainerd Lakes region east into northern Wisconsin. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 10 13 -8 1 / 100 100 50 10 INL 1 5 -14 -2 / 100 90 50 10 BRD 11 12 -16 -1 / 100 100 40 0 HYR 17 19 -4 4 / 100 100 90 10 ASX 15 17 -1 6 / 100 100 100 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Thursday night for WIZ001>004-006>009. MN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Thursday night for MNZ012-019>021-037-038. Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST Thursday for MNZ010-011-018- 025-026. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST Thursday for MNZ033>036. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Melde SHORT TERM...Huyck LONG TERM...Huyck AVIATION...Melde