132 FXUS64 KLUB 060432 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1032 PM CST Tue Feb 5 2019 .AVIATION... KCDS remains in cool and moist light easterly low level flow and appears on the verge of fog formation. Retained much of the previous forecast, but included a period of more solid LIFR conditions. Solutions also now slightly delayed with turning to more veered low level flow at KCDS Wednesday, so we also delayed until early afternoon. Wind is the big issue for both KLBB and KPVW, with solutions in fair agreement that a 40+ knot low level jet that was forming late this evening across the southern Panhandle will impact mainly KPVW during the night, so added a LLWS wind shear remark for KPVW but not KLBB. Also overnight, solutions are showing approaching showers with a top-down moistening attempt but with only but about 1 to 2 hours of reasonable shower chances so not much time to moisten lower atmosphere. Have retained no shower mention overnight. And, kept much of the previous strong southwest wind forecast starting both KPVW and KLBB by midday Wednesday, likely dependent at least somewhat on mid/high cloud thinning. RMcQueen && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 522 PM CST Tue Feb 5 2019/ AVIATION... Low level flow remains backed from the east and southeast at KCDS this evening and raises distinct possibility for stratus developing overnight. We adjusted towards the latest HRRR trends, bringing low clouds and fog into KCDS a little before midnight. Will be adjusting further as necessary during the evening. Both KPVW and KLBB are expected to remain fairly well veered from the south- southwest overnight. A modest low level jet around 30 to 35 knots will develop, close to needing a LLWS wind shear remark. Also will monitor for this. Otherwise, mid and high cloud flow overhead will remain until gradually breaking up during the day Wednesday, timing of this is unclear, but afternoon should be sunnier than morning, and windier. RMcQueen PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CST Tue Feb 5 2019/ DISCUSSION... Several things going on in this forecast in the next 48 hours, which was the main focus of the forecast package. Cloud cover has stuck around the forecast area today, both some low and high level clouds signaling moisture invading the region. Before one gets too excited, this moisture will be gone by tomorrow morning, but a few may get to enjoy its benefits tonight. A good fetch of moisture moved across the southeast half of our forecast area this morning, with another slug of moisture moving up out of the Trans-Pecos this afternoon. A swift shortwave tonight may give a quick shot of precip overnight, as models have been persistent on pushing showers across the FA after midnight. A strong 140KT jet max over the region may just give that extra umph to produce those showers. Still, rain totals are expected to be meager with only a few hundredths for most. The next order of business is tomorrow when the clouds and moisture move out and a trough starts to lift northeastward out of the Great Basin region. The approach of this system will induce rapid height falls kicking winds up across the entire region. These will be supported by a healthy jet max of 140-150KT, down to 85KT at 500, roughly 50-55 at 700 and a modest 35-45 at 850. Conditions will be decent for good mixing in the afternoon, so winds, especially on the Caprock were kicked into the Advisory category. So, a Wind Advisory does go into effect at noon tomorrow and lasts until 7 PM on Wednesday. Blowing dust is likely on the Caprock, especially near fields and construction sites, and driving on north-south oriented roads could be difficult at times. Finally, just as these winds are dying down, we'll have a cold front that is dragged through on the backside of this trough. We have elected to go with the faster Euro solution on FROPA on Thursday morning, as this colder airmass fronts tend to move through quicker in the morning rather than stalling and then making a fast run in the afternoon. Therefore, highs on Thursday were dropped a few degrees to reflect the faster FROPA. Mainly stuck with the Blend past this, though did lower PoPs for the weekend into the slight chance as the chance PoPs still seemed a bit bullish attm. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CST Wednesday for TXZ021>024- 027>030-033>035-039>041. && $$ 99/99/05