367 
FXUS64 KAMA 060148 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
748 PM CST Tue Feb 5 2019

.UPDATE...
Surface cold front has pushed further west to include more of
the north central zones. Also, temperatures behind this boundary
have already cooled to below forecast mins for tonight. Have
adjusted the appropriate grids to account for mins tonight, winds,
and cloud cover. May have to change Dense Fog Advisory to a
Freezing Fog Advisory for parts of the OK Pnhdl and nern TX
Panhandle as well as expand a bit south based on current obs. Will
take a closer look at this and update accordingly through the
evening hours. 

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 547 PM CST Tue Feb 5 2019/ 

AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front has pushed thru most of the OK
Panhandle, including KGUY, and much of the eastern TX Panhandle 
as of this writing. IFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys due to FZFG will
persist at KGUY tonight until around mid morning Wednesday before
rapidly improving as strong and gusty southwest winds commence, 
then continue through late Wednesday afternoon at the terminal 
sites. Later shifts may need to consider an Aviation Weather 
Warning for KAMA on Wednesday afternoon as wind gusts may reach or
exceed 40 knots. 

02 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 PM CST Tue Feb 5 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Cool moist airmass holding strong across eastern half of Oklahoma
Panhandle.  Have reissued Dense Fog Advisory for this area 
through the night and into Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, strong deep southwest flow will act to dislodge
above-mentioned cool moist airmass from the northeast.  Strong
southwest winds will spread across Panhandles from west to east,
possibly reaching Wind Advisory levels.

Cold front passes Wednesday night.  Wind chill readings early
Thursday morning will be in the 0 to -5 degree range across the
Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern 1/4 of the Texas Panhandle.
North winds on Thursday will hold maximum temperatures in the
lower- to mid-30s across the northern half of the forecast area,
with upper-30s and lower-40s elsewhere.  

Modest recovery begins on Friday with most sections rising into
the 40s.  By Sunday, highs at or above normal are expected, with
readings in the 50s prevailing.

Models diverge in later periods.  Southwest flow aloft is
interrupted briefly by a modest shortwave, progged to pass Monday
or Tuesday.  Pops offered by Blend Sunday night and Monday have
been reduced in area and capped at 20 percent.  See very little
opportunity for moisture return to set up a precipitation event.
03

Cockrell

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop on Wednesday as strong southwest winds
overspread the area.  Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the
western, central and south-central parts of the Texas Panhandle
for Wednesday and Wednesday evening.  Cold front moves into
Oklahoma Panhandle before midnight, shifting winds to the north, and
then passes all of Texas Panhandle by sunrise Thursday.  Light to
moderate north winds are expected on Thursday.  No elevated or 
critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday through 
Tuesday.  03

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday 
     evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hartley...Moore...
     Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall.

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for the following 
     zones: Beaver...Texas.


&&

$$