406 FXUS62 KMHX 052042 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 342 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the Carolinas through tonight and remain in control of the weather through late week as it moves offshore. A strong cold front will move through the area Friday and Friday night, followed by high pressure returning this weekend. Another storm system could arrive early next week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 315 PM Tuesday ...The latest sfc analysis is showing high pressure building in from Florida and ridge axis across the area, while a very weak backdoor cold front approaches the area from the north. The front will push through late tonight, but dissipate as the boundary reaches the southern sections of the FA. Overall, conditions will remain dry with skies becoming partly cloudy over the northern half and mostly clear to the south. Winds will decouple tonight with decent radiational cooling expected. Conditions are more favorable for patchy fog to develop after midnight as model soundings indicate shallow but sufficient low level moisture. In addition, developing light easterly flow would support areas of sea fog formation across the Sounds/coastal waters. Highs will be mild for this time of year generally in the mid 40s inland and upper 40s beaches. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM Tuesday...High pressure will build in from the south with a warm front lifting north. This will result in a very pleasant days with temps well above average. Low level thickness values and mostly sunny skies support highs will be similar to today with highs in the low to mid 70s inland and low/mid 60s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... Warmer air and concerns with sea fog will be the main forecast challenges early in the long term period followed by cooler weather this weekend and turning very unsettled by next week. Wednesday night...We continued to mention patchy fog during this period especially over the coastal waters and then spreading along the immediate coastline overnight. Higher resolution models such as the NMM and ARW have this general area highlighted and with surface dewpoints and a southwest flow this makes sense. Thursday/Friday....Break out the shorts and t-shirts! With high pressure off the coast 500 MB heights rise to 586 DM late in the day with H850 temps between 13C and 15C by 0Z Friday. Inched temperatures up a bit with widespread upper 70s inland and this is still conservative. 1000-850 thickness values suggest right around 80 is an increasing possibility. If this happens this would put most of our inland climate sites well within the range of recording breaking high temperatures (see climate section below). It will be cooler along the coast with 60s expected and the possibility of sea fog early in the day. A cold front will move through the area Friday. Both the Euro and GFS continue to show a thin window of moisture with the front and our current 20% chance of rain still looks good. The strongest cold aid advection (CAA) holds off until Friday night. With 850 temps still +12 Friday afternoon, temps will again be well into the 70s, although touching 80 is not as likely as it will be Thursday. This weekend...Behind the front mentioned above it will be much cooler this weekend with highs holding in the 40s Saturday, and lower 50s Sunday. Most of the weekend will remain dry but a shower can't be ruled out Sunday afternoon as warmer air tries to move back into the area. Most of the deeper moisture holds off however until later Sunday night. Monday/Tuesday...A warm front will lift into or just north of the area, with a stalled cold front well to our northwest. With various fronts in or near our area and decent lift due to warmer air moving in, showers will be possible through the period. We will be warmer with highs back into the 60s. For rain chances we capped them around 50% given some model uncertainty. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through 18Z Wednesday/... As of 130 PM Tuesday...Little change from the previous forecast. High confidence in VFR this afternoon with high pressure building over the area through tonight producing mostly clear skies and light winds. Conditions continue to look favorable for patchy fog and sub VFR conditions early Wednesday morning with strong radiational cooling and shallow but sufficient low level moisture. Light and variable winds this afternoon calm overnight before becoming predominantly SSE/S at around 5 knots Wednesday morning. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend. Breezy southwest winds will develop ahead of an approaching cold front Friday, becoming northerly as the cold front crosses the area late Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 315 PM Tuesday...High pressure building across the waters, while a very weak backdoor cold front will push through late tonight. Winds have diminished to 10 knots or less from the W to SW and seas mostly 4-5 ft with the central water still with 6 ft. Seas will continue to subside late this afternoon/early evening becoming 3-5 ft. Winds will become easterly 10 kt or less over waters overnight, then become SE tomorrow afternoon. Seas will subside from 3-5 ft tonight to 2-3 ft tomorrow afternoon. Sea fog may develop tonight over the northern waters and Albemarle Sound, but confidence is low. Models are showing a stronger signal for tomorrow afternoon as winds become SW. Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... Winds and seas will gradually increase through the second half of the workweek as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front. The primary concern for mid- week is the potential for sea fog development Wednesday evening into Thursday as a warm and humid airmass spreads across the waters on the back of light winds. Coverage, intensity, and duration remains very uncertain, but mariners should be prepared for periods of significantly reduced visibilities, especially across larger bodies of water. Southwest winds will become breezy Friday, which will greatly reduce the fog threat, but will bring the more traditional threat for rough conditions hazardous to small craft with gusts approaching 25 kts and even a few 6 foot seas possible outer waters. Winds will quickly shift northerly as the front crosses the waters late Friday, and moderate to strong winds of up to 30 kt will develop as high pressure builds across the waters Saturday, bringing seas to 5 to 8 ft across the coastal waters north of Cape Lookout. Winds diminish rapidly Sunday veering into the east at 10 kts or less by afternoon with seas of 2 to 3 feet. && .CLIMATE... Record high temps are possible this week. Record High Max temps for 2/5 (Today) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR Cape Hatteras 70/2016 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 77/1962 (COOP) Jacksonville 82/1986 (KNCA ASOS) Kinston 75/2008 (COOP) Morehead City 69/1991 (COOP) New Bern 78/2008 (KEWN ASOS) Record High Max temps for 2/6 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR Cape Hatteras 68/1991 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 81/2008 (COOP) Jacksonville 80/2008 (KNCA ASOS) Kinston 79/2008 (COOP) Morehead City 68/2004 (COOP) New Bern 82/2008 (KEWN ASOS) Record High Max temps for 2/7 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR Cape Hatteras 68/1989 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 79/1938 (COOP) Jacksonville 76/1989 (KNCA ASOS) Kinston 71/2017 (COOP) Morehead City 70/1990 (COOP) New Bern 75/2017 (KEWN ASOS) Record High Max temps for 2/8 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR Cape Hatteras 68/1965 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 77/1963 (COOP) Jacksonville 74/1965 (KNCA ASOS) Kinston 73/2017 (COOP) Morehead City 70/1990 (COOP) New Bern 74/2015 (KEWN ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EH/BM NEAR TERM...BM SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...EH/MS AVIATION...MS MARINE...EH/BM CLIMATE...MHX