630 
FXUS64 KLUB 021002
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
402 AM CST Sat Feb 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Low clouds and fog are developing across portions of the forecast
area and will likely blanket all but the northwestern South 
Plains by sunrise. These will hang around through much of the
morning before daytime mixing and increasing southwesterly wind 
helps to erode the clouds from west to east. Low-level moisture
never really gets pushed out of the region so we may have another
repeat tomorrow morning before stronger winds develop during the
day. 00Z models came in a bit stronger with wind speeds for Sunday
afternoon and will generally fall in the 20 to 30 mph range and it
will again depend on where the surface low develops across
southeastern Colorado and how tight the pressure gradient can get
in the afternoon. Did trend wind speeds up for the afternoon and
we should still see a bit of a boost in high temperatures for
Sunday afternoon as well thanks to the added downslope component
to the wind.

Monday and Tuesday will be fairly benign days weather-wise as
southwesterly flow aloft remains in place and only a weak lee
surface trough develops each afternoon. The wind will remain out
of the southwest to west each day so highs will still manage to
climb into the low 70s on the Caprock and upper 70s across the
Rolling Plains. Sustained southwesterly flow aloft will help to
pull in mid-level moisture from the Pacific and the subtropical
jet will move overhead providing weak lift to increase mid to 
high level cloud cover. In this same time frame, the next storm
system to impact our region will start to develop over the Pacific
northwest and dive southeast into the southwestern U.S. by
Wednesday.

The GFS and ECMWF have once again diverged on solutions; the ECMWF
pushes the trough axis over the Rockies by Thursday morning while
the GFS waits until early Friday morning. Precipitation chances
will start to increase Wednesday night regardless of the model
timings as this is the window for the best moisture levels in the
atmosphere and the subtropical jet will be at it's strongest. What
will be impacted is how long the window will remain open; the
faster ECMWF will cut off precipitation by Thursday morning while
the GFS hold on to precip into Thursday night while also hinting
at some trailing precipitation behind the departing trough. With
continued decent coverage in the models, will go with chance pops
across all but the northwestern South Plains Wednesday night and
hold on to slight chance for rain into Thursday morning. There may
be a few snowflakes mixed in Thursday morning across the
northwestern South Plains where temperatures will fall into the
mid 30s by sunrise. Otherwise, temperatures will remain too warm
everywhere else thanks to the moisture and cloud cover. Also
leaned temperatures towards the faster ECMWF which continues to
bring the next cold front into the forecast area by Thursday
afternoon.

Temperatures will slowly warm and we will dry out by Friday as the
trough is well east of the region and drier air settles in behind
the cold front. How fast temperatures will warm will depend on how
quick southerly return flow will develop. The ECMWF has this
starting Friday afternoon while the GFS holds off almost all the
way into Saturday night.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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