077 FXUS62 KRAH 012332 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 630 PM EST Fri Feb 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening area of high pressure will continue to drift away from NC. This will permit a weak cold front to pass to our north this afternoon. Another area of high pressure will briefly build into central NC from the north tonight and Saturday. An area of low pressure will develop off the Georgia coast Saturday night which is projected to move slowly northeast just off the Carolina coast Sunday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 305 PM Friday... Modification of the Arctic air mass is in full swing as afternoon temperatures have rebounded into the 50s across a large part of central NC after recording early morning low temperatures in the low and mid 20s. The exception is sections of the cloud shrouded NW Piedmont where temperatures were in the 40s to near 50. While regional radars depict several areas of light precipitation crossing near and north of the VA border, the dry sub cloud layer was causing most of the precip to evaporate before reaching the surface. Still, as areas of precip aloft repeat over the region and gradually moisten the lower atmosphere, will likely see a few sprinkles skirt eastward across the far northern counties through late afternoon. Water vapor imagery depicts a well defined s/w diving sewd across the lower Great Lakes into the OH Valley this afternoon. Another s/w was noted exiting the Chesapeake Bay region. The passages of these mid/upper level features will drag a weak sfc boundary sewd across central NC tonight. Since convergence along this boundary is weak and the atmosphere will remain relatively dry, no sensible weather expected with its passage. In the wake of the departing s/w, subsidence will aid to dissipate/diminish any lingering cloud coverage prior to daybreak. Temperatures this evening will gradually cool through the 40s into the upper 30s, with overnight temperatures generally between 30 and 35 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM Friday... A preview of Spring expected for Saturday as wly flow aloft and an area of high pressure at the surface will maintain a dry atmosphere. While the flow at the surface will be light, the wind flow a few thousand feet above the surface will be wly, leading to some compressional warming. This should translate to afternoon temperatures a solid 5-8 degrees above normal, ranging from 55 to 60 degrees across the north, and the lower 60s across the south. The latest ECMWF has trended drier, somewhat comparable to the GFS, in its depiction of the weather pattern across our region for Saturday night. A fairly well organized/defined mid level s/w will cross the northern FL peninsula Saturday morning, and into the coastal waters off of Georgia Saturday afternoon. This feature should generate a weak sfc wave offshore Saturday night. This feature progged to lift newd, being pushed along by another s/w crossing the Deep South. Due to this east-northeastward push, the sfc wave is not expected to hang as close to the coast as earlier depicted by former runs of the ECMWF. Thus, have adjusted sky coverage and PoP downward, and confined a slight chance PoP to the far southeast portion of our forecast area. Min temps should vary from 35-40 across the north, to the lower 40s across the south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 140 PM Friday... It appears that the southern branch short wave trough will move east across the Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley then off the SE US Coast on Sunday evening. Models have been flip-flopping with each run in depicting the chance of rain with this weak system Sunday into Sunday evening, with the 12z/today run of the models back to dry after last night's wet 00z/Fri model runs for our SE zones. The system will have to deal with a dry air ridge that is forecast to extend south into NC over the weekend. With this ridge in place and with the weak mid/upper system, and any low pressure development expected offshore, we will pull back the advertised POP a bit on Sunday, essentially going with dry north to very low POP south. There should be considerable cloudiness Sunday before clearing behind the departing system Sunday night. This cloudiness will help hold temperatures down Sunday, but the 12z/NAM statistical guidance appears too cool. We will trend toward the cooler NAM, but blend in some of the warm GFS which would favor highs from the 55-60 range north and 60-65 south. For Monday through Tuesday night, a warm upper ridge is expected to build from Texas to NC, with a backdoor cold front potentially to bring cooler temperatures into northern NC Wednesday. Highs well into the 60s, with some lower 70s are expected on Monday and Tuesday, cooling a bit mid-week. Late in the week, a battle ground between very cold over the Midwest and Great Lakes and warm over the southern U.S. will have to be watched Thursday into the weekend. Low confidence forecast for NC but the milder than normal temperatures should continue through at least late week, with the chance of rain on the increase depending on the frontal positions then. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 630 PM Friday... VFR conditions are expected to persist over the next 24 hours. Early in the period, 6 - 8kft CIGs continue to push south through region as a nearly stalled cold front settles near the VA/NC border. This front will be washed out quickly overnight as a shortwave passes by to our north, allowing rapidly clearing and lifting CIGs. FEW/SKC should prevail by sunrise Saturday. SFC winds will remain light through the day Saturday (less than 10kts) and primarily southwesterly in nature. Late in the period, mid to upper level clouds (VFR) may begin to build north into our region, likely impacting KFAY late Saturday afternoon, causing little in terms of aviation impacts. There is a high likelihood that VFR conditions will persist through early next week. The exception will be a threat for low end VFR ceilings to occur in vicinity of KFAY Sunday through early Monday as a mid level disturbance passes to the south-southeast. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...JJM