922 FXUS63 KJKL 011255 CCA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED National Weather Service Jackson KY 755 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 651 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2019 The forecast is looking pretty good so far this morning. Due to dry air in the lower atmosphere, precipitation has been having difficulty reaching the ground for the past couple of hours. A few locations have begun to see snow flurries or very light precip so far today. Over the next hour or two the surface layer should continue to saturate, allowing measurable precipitation to finally reach the ground. Road surface temperatures will remain cold enough for slick spots to form once ample amounts of snow or freezing rain/drizzle begin accumulating. The latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 315 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2019 The primary concern in the short term remains the potential for a wintry mix of precipitation across most of the area this morning and the potential for slick roads throughout the day. The primary threat for freezing rain will still be along and north of the Mountain Parkway through mid to late this morning. However, with road temperatures expected to lag behind air temperatures, there will also be the potential for freezing rain to occur into the afternoon and evening hours for some locations, especially in our deeper and more sheltered eastern valley's, where the cold air that is currently in place may take much longer to scour out than other areas to the west and southwest of there. As such we will be leaving our winter weather advisory virtually unchanged. Areas along and north of I64 will have the best chance of freezing rain and snow early this morning, with isolated areas perhaps seeing freezing rain and a bit of snow south of the Mountain Parkway. With road temperatures across most of the area expected to remain at or below freezing, slick roads will be the primary impact. Bridges and overpasses, and any untreated roads, will be most prone to icy spots during the morning commute. The models are in decent agreement with the timing and evolution precipitation today, so the forecast overall is not going to be much different than what the day shift issued yesterday. Precipitation will gradually transition from a wintry mix this morning, to all rain or mostly rain by this afternoon. We could see a few snow flurries on the back edge of the departing area of precipitation this evening, but those should not have any impacts. The main concern will be the potential for freezing rain, snow and slick roads this morning, and then lingering isolated patches of freezing rain this afternoon in our eastern areas where the roads may take much longer to warm above freezing. The last precipitation should be exiting the area early this evening, and will give way to mostly cloudy skies and much warm temperatures. Lows across eastern Kentucky should be mainly in the 30s by Saturday morning. Todays highs will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s for most of the area. An even bigger warm up is on tap for the weekend, as persistent southerly flow will be established. We could see highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 50s for most locations. A few spots along the Tennessee border may even reach 60 degrees tomorrow afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 721 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2019 The period should start quietly, with surface high pressure just to our east and low level warm air advection ongoing. A weak mid/upper level wave is expected to pass to our south during the weekend, and it looks like any precipitation associated with it will remain to our south. Our next shot at inclement weather is not until late Monday into Tuesday. The responsible system is still off the west coast and should start moving onshore today. As the upper level system crosses the Rockies, it will support surface low development over the Central Plains, with a deep low then moving northeast over the Upper Great Lakes by Monday evening. A trailing cold front will move west to east through KY Monday night. Gulf moisture flowing north along and ahead of the front may bring rain for our area. The upper level wave will be rather weak this far south, and it will be fast moving. This keeps the POP in the chance category. Another upper level wave currently over western Canada will be our next player in the mid to late week time frame. As it drops south, it is expected to set up an upper level pattern of swift flow with a long west southwesterly fetch for our area. The aforementioned front should move back north to KY. Low level flow lifting north off the Gulf and impinging on the front should result in rain for our area. Models still show a lot of of variation in the system as it evolves, but all point toward active, wet weather. The notable differences between the ECMWF and GFS include the GFS being heavier with rain (possibly flooding rains late week), and the ECMWF being much more aggressive at bringing in cold air to end the week. There is potential for forecast busts until the models can come into better agreement. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 651 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2019 VFR conditions at the TAF sites will gradually deteriorate to MVFR, or even IFR in a few instances, as a wintry mix of precipitation moves across the area this morning. The precipitation should be at its peak coverage between 14 and 22Z before rapidly tapering off and exiting the area early this evening. Freezing rain and snow will make for slick runways and icing of aircraft, especially through 16Z today. Light southerly winds will prevail through the end of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106-108-111-112-114>117. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ107- 109-110-113-118>120. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR