219 FXUS63 KLBF 010523 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1123 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 322 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 As the deep upper low near the Great Lakes pushes northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes, the broad upper ridge over the Rockies spreads farther onto the High Plains. The gaining influence of the ridge combined with a surface warm front crossing the forecast area will provide relatively warm and dry conditions through Friday. Efficient mixing, downslope flow, and bouts of sunshine led to a mild winter day with highs reaching the lower/mid 50s across southwest Neb. Went above guidance for min temps tonight as WAA continues at H85 (temps rising to near 6C by 12z) and low level northwest flow transitions to southwest. Light winds and mostly clear skies will be conducive for efficient radiational cooling, although dew points holding in the upper teens will limit lows to near 20F. Little concerned about forecast lows being a tad too warm in case drier air works into the region, but did lower in the Platte River Valley an extra degree. Friday is shaping up to be similar to today except a little warmer. Trended toward the MAV for widespread highs in the 50s and a few 60s far southwest. Normal high for LBF is 40F. Modest WAA at H85 will be underway with temps pushing 10C and a slight breeze off the higher terrain. Soundings suggest very little moisture below H5, which hints at a nearly cloud-free day. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 322 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 The forecast models are in very good agreement drawing arctic high pressure north of Alaska south through wrn Canada this weekend and then into the nrn high plains Monday. The arctic high pressure will then move slowly south Tuesday through Thursday and produce cold weather across Nebraska. Two snow chances develop, both producing light snow. One disturbance moves through with the arctic front Sunday night and Monday morning and a second disturbance moves through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Both systems are operating on strong frontogenesis farther north across the Dakotas where the best chance for accumulating snow will occur. Today's snow accumulation forecast is about half of the previous forecast and an inch or less total is in the forecast Monday through Wednesday. Ahead of the arctic air, very mild temperatures are in place with highs in the 50s and 60s Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will be the warmer day with nearly full sun. The models show mid and high level cloudiness Sunday which will partially block the sun. The arctic air Monday through Thursday is expected to produce highs in the teens, 20s and 30s and lows in the teens and single digits above and below zero. The lows are probably too cold given that meaningful snow cover could be nil and cloud cover will block radiational cooling. The high temperature forecast generally assumes the brunt of the cold air remains across the northern plains but the ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECM suggest a spread of 4 to 7 standard deviations. This suggests low confidence in the temperature forecast Monday through Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1122 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 VFR conditions will continue at both terminals through Friday evening. Clear to mostly clear skies and winds under 10 knots should be expected. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Snively LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Kulik