314 FXUS63 KDLH 312053 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 253 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 252 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 High pressure was over the forecast area at 20Z/2pm with cirrus clouds floating overhead. Winds have gone light and variable and no longer producing hazardous wind chill values. The high drifts east of the region tonight. Clouds will slowly be on the increase in response to the warm air advection ahead of an approaching mid level trof. With the ridging nearby, the surface wind will be light and variable. The cloud and wind combination will keep wind chill values below advisory criteria and thus, no headlines tonight. Minimum temps will still be well below zero. The aforementioned mid level trof moves east of the area on Friday, but a second, weaker one, will follow and move over the area through the day. Meanwhile, an upper level vort max cruises along the international border area in the afternoon. There are model differences in the QPF signal in overall coverage and amount. Will use a blend of models which keeps the pops along and north of U.S. Highway 2 in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Up to one inch of snow is possible along the Borderland to Grand Marais and Grand Portage. Lower amounts elsewhere. Max temps wil be above zero. The second mid level trof departs Friday evening, after dropping up to another one half inch of snow over the tip of the Arrowhead. High pressure builds back in at the surface with mid and upper level ridging overnight. A frontal boundary will be north of the international border, however. Will maintain the previous forecast of small pops to accommodate differences in the models position of the front and its possible affect on the border area. Minimum temps will be in the single digits above and below zero, to around 10 in northwest Wisconsin. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 252 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 The weekend will bring warmer weather to the Northland. A stationary/warm front will be over the region Saturday, with 850 hpa temperatures 0 to 4 degrees Celsius across our west and south. Temperatures should climb to the lower 20s to nearly 30 degrees, with the warmest conditions across the south. Sunday looks even warmer even though a weak Canadian Clipper will move through the region Saturday night and Sunday. This clipper will begin to bring in colder air, but because of the warmer start Saturday night compared to Friday night, temperatures will be warmer on Sunday than Saturday. Isentropic lift ahead of the Clipper could bring freezing drizzle and drizzle to northwest Wisconsin and the Minnesota Arrowhead Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday high temperatures should range from the middle 20s across north-central Minnesota to nearly 40 degrees in northwest Wisconsin. There are increasing signs the Northland could see a significant storm system late this weekend into early next week. The GFS, Canadian, and European models continue to indicate a Colorado low will lift across the Central Plains to the Central Great Lakes Sunday night to Monday evening. This track could bring the full gamut to the Northland. Northwest Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota could see rain and freezing rain, followed by snow and blowing snow. Northern Minnesota could see some freezing rain as well as moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow. There could be winds of 15 to 25 mph with this system, but not confident the winds will be that strong yet because of differences between the models. It will certainly bring a rapid push of Arctic air into the Northland Monday, making for a quick temperature drop. There could be concerns of flash freezing of liquid water on roadways in northwest Wisconsin. The models are indicating another low will move across the southern and eastern US during the middle of the week, and its inverted trough will move through the Northland with snow. This could be another round of light to moderate snowfall across the Northland. The latter half of the week will likely turn colder as even colder Arctic air moves in. High temperatures could return to near 0 degrees Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1213 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 Widespread VFR conditions should continue through this evening with light southerly winds. However, there will be lowering ceilings from the southwest this evening and overnight which will bring some MVFR ceilings into the region. There could be really light snow with the lower ceilings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -15 13 9 25 / 0 10 10 0 INL -20 11 0 19 / 10 70 20 10 BRD -13 18 8 28 / 0 0 0 0 HYR -12 16 11 31 / 0 0 0 0 ASX -12 16 12 29 / 0 20 10 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...Grochocinski AVIATION...Grochocinski