029 FXUS63 KMQT 301203 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 703 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 436 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019 ...Dangerous cold with frequent white-outs near Lake Superior... Brutal cold has arrived with wind chills near 50 blo zero at IWD and around 35 blo over rest of the west half. NW winds off Lk Superior are moderating conditions near the lake and into the eastern forecast area with wind chills more in the 20 to 30 blo range. Lake effect continues for nw wind snow belts, including Ironwood through the Copper Country and just east of Marquette across Alger through northern Luce county, including the Seney Stretch. Gusty winds and blowing/drifting snow is resutling in near zero vsby along M-28 per MDOT webcam at Au Train. Technically in addition to vsby less than 1/4sm, winds need to gust to 35 mph or more for 3 hours or more to meet blizzard criteria. Though that has not happened yet, winds are expected to increase today as has occurred recently at P59 with gusts near 40 kts. No change to the blizzard warning as impact is certainly there already with M-28 remaining closed at this time. As deep upper low moves toward Quebec, bitter cold airmass will continue to grip large area from the northern Plains to northern Ontario across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. To see such widespread temps in the -20s to -30s from Manitoba to northern Illinois is impressive. Expect temps over Upper Michigan today to stay mainly below zero. Lake effect continues and has been intense in some bands where low-level convergence is strong. Main areas affected overnight are around IWD and in snow belts of Alger and Schoolcraft counties. Lake enhanced setup continues today then loss of deep moisture and forcing tonight will result in more of a pure LES setup. Following 925-850mb winds today, expect LES on west end to lift north of Gogebic this aftn, shifting the hazard to the bitter cold and not as much snow/low vsby. Elsewhere NW-WNW winds will allow LES/low vsby to persist fairly steady state. Winds back more WNW-W late tonight, so focus will start to shift to mainly Keweenaw and in the snow belts mostly east of Munising closer to Lk Superior. Winds still expected to increase during the day today, so where LES is ongoing, the blsn/low vsby issues likely will increase. This is especially true in open areas along Lk Superior. Regarding headlines the biggest change was to drop Delta from winter weather advisory and swtiched out the winter storm warning for a winter wx advy for southern Houghton, Baraga and Marquette. Main focus for heavier snow and blsn will be over far eastern Marquette county from here on out. For all these areas and also southern Schoolcraft, and eventually on the west end, once the lake effect ends, issued wind chill warnings due to the bitter cold wind chills expected through Thu morning. Wind chills will not be at warning the entire time with some moderation this aftn, but the majority of the time will be around warning so went that route for the headlines. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 505 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019 Models suggest that a slowly progressive pattern will prevail with the deep mid/upper level trough over Quebec into the ne CONUS lifting off to the northeast as a trough move into the wrn CONUS. This will bring a quick moderating in temps into the weekend with an active pattern developing into next week. Thursday, dangerous wind chills of -35 to -50 will continue through the morning with temps from around -15F to -30F and winds remaining around 10 mph. Conditions should moderate by afternoon as winds drop to around 5 mph and temps climb toward zero to -5 in the early afternoon. LES, heaviest into the northeast will also diminish. However, with 850 mb temps to -28C, a very shallow DGZ, and equilibrium levels to 10k ft into the east and lake induced troughing enhancing the low level convergence, 1 to 3 inches of additional accumulation of fine snowflakes are likely. Ridging building into the western lake and lower inversion heights to 3k ft should keep accumulations into the west at an inch or less. Thursday night, even with some increase in high clouds, light winds will allow temps to drop into the -10 to -20 range, lower in favored cold spots. Temps could even approach -30 again if cloud cover is not as thick. Friday-Saturday, WAA will strengthen quickly as mid level ridging over the plains builds into the northern Great Lakes. A shortwave and area of isentropic ascent may bring some light snow into mainly the north and east Friday night where low level saturation is more likely. Sunday, There may be enough of a moisture and WAA surge to bring some light pcpn into Upper Michigan by early Sunday. Temps aloft climb enough so that mixed pcpn may be possible. Confidence in the extent of the pcpn and temp profile is still low, so that mainly just snow was mentioned early with a mix or rain and snow as temps climb during the day. Monday-Tuesday, the models have trended stronger and farther northwest with the track of a southern stream shortwave and associated sfc low into the region. This would favor a higher chance for rain over much of the area. Since the models have been inconsistent with the track of this feature, a rain/snow mix was mentioned. A quick cooldown is expected in the wake of the low that may result in icy conditions if liquid pcpn or melted snow remains just ahead of the cold front. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 657 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019 Between the snow and gusty winds, expect LIFR conditions through much of the day at KIWD and KCMX. Winds shift to southwest tonight which brings snow out of IWD, but will keep it going at CMX. Diminishing winds at CMX should result in vsby lifting up to IFR late tonight. Meanwhile at SAW, looks like most snow showers will remain east of the airport with wnw winds. May be some flurries at times with MVFR cigs, but conditions should eventually trend VFR. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 436 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019 North to northwest gales up to 40 knots are expected through tonight, especially over the central and east. Heavy freezing spray will continue through Friday, before subsiding this weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ004- 005-084. Wind Chill Warning until noon EST /11 AM CST/ Thursday for MIZ004-005-010>014-084. Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ006-085. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ001-003-007. Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MIZ009. Wind Chill Warning from noon today to 11 AM CST Thursday for MIZ009. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM EST Thursday for MIZ002. Wind Chill Warning from 5 AM to noon EST Thursday for MIZ002. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday for LSZ162-240>251-263>267. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for LSZ251-267. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for LSZ243>250-264>266. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ240>242-263. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...JLA MARINE...JLA