622 
FXUS62 KCAE 300543
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1243 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cold air will push into the area overnight. This will 
continue through Thursday. Moderating temperatures are expected 
over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Cold and dry air is pushing into the region behind the exiting 
cold front. Forecast remains dry overnight. Skies mostly clear. 
Winds should be west to northwest between 5 and 10 mph, with 
some higher gusts still possible through the night. Overnight 
lows still expected to drop down into the lower to middle 20s. 

A drying wind and sufficient time between the end of rain and
freezing temperatures indicates a diminished risk of black ice
on area roadways tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level flow will flatten out Wednesday and Thursday as the 
upper trough over the eastern CONUS shifts eastward. A reinforcing 
cold front will move into the area during the day on Wednesday with 
Arctic high pressure building into the region from the northwest. 
The airmass will be extremely dry with PWAT values less than a 
quarter inch. Skies will be mostly clear. Below normal 
temperatures are expected with highs in the middle 40s to lower 
50s. Overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain near the eastern seaboard 
through the weekend. The 12Z ECMWF continues to show more 
moisture across the forecast area on Sunday than the 12Z GFS. 
Surface low pressure over the Midwest will cross the Great Lakes
during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe bringing the next cold 
front toward the area early next week. Continued to indicate
slight chance/chance pops Sunday through Tuesday. A gradual 
warming trend is expected over the weekend and into early next 
week with highs on Friday in the mid to upper 50s and highs by 
Tuesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence for VFR conditions through the TAF period.

High pressure ridging in from the west will bring a cold and dry
air mass to the region. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots this
morning will becoming west 10-15 knots with gust around 20 
knots behind a reinforcing cold front scheduled to cross the 
area this afternoon. Will see high level clouds crossing the 
region through late afternoon. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture in a low-level 
onshore flow may lead to restrictions in stratus and fog 
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$