818 FXUS63 KFSD 292152 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 352 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 351 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019 Arctic airmass continues to grip the region, set to produce record breaking low temperatures tonight. With winds gusting in the 30 to 40 mph range and below zero temperatures across the board, wind chills are already -25 to -40F. This evening, we'll see readings continue to drop with air temperatures reaching -20 to -35F by daybreak Wednesday. The coldest regions will be see in the highway 14 corridor into southwest Minnesota where snowpack is also highest. While winds will steadily decrease this evening and overnight, the brutally cold air temperatures will be able to keep wind chills solidly within wind chill warning criteria (-35F) into Wednesday morning. Coldest One area that may be borderline for reaching warning criteria will be our extreme southwestern counties such as Gregory and Charles Mix where temperatures will be slightly warmer. Given the uncertainty of exactly how cold this area gets, will leave them in the warning for now as it doesn't take much wind to make large impacts to wind chills. The morning commute and bus stop time frames on Wednesday morning will see the coldest readings. Temperatures during the day on Wednesday steadily warm around 15 to 20 degrees or so from overnight lows. This places highs from around zero in south central SD, to the upper teens below zero in southwest Minnesota. The "good" news is that winds will remain relatively light through the day, which will help alleviate wind chills. For southeast SD to the south of I-90, temperatures warm enough to move back to advisory conditions (-20F), or even warmer than advisory criteria near the Missouri River. But will keep the advisory going through the day given that temperature cool back down into advisory territory Wednesday night. Meanwhile for east central SD, southwest MN, and most of northwest IA, wind chill warning levels continue along with the colder air temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 351 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019 Wednesday night, winds will be shifting more southerly while clouds increase across the region from the southwest with the arrival of mid level moisture. The weather should remain mostly dry, but with the cold temperatures in place, may see a few flurries develop overnight in southeast SD, extending to the eastern half of the forecast area Thursday morning. We will start seeing a warming trend beginning late Wednesday, with temperatures bottoming Wednesday evening or the early morning hours Thursday before slowly warming once again. Wind chills are expected to improve to warmer than advisory level by mid morning Thursday. Highs on Thursday could be some 20 to 30 degrees warmer than Wednesday, with near 30F possible in south central, and 0 to 5 above in southwest MN. The warming trend continues Friday and Saturday with a broad upper level ridge building into the High Plains. Highs on Saturday are expected to reach the 40s for much of the area, especially where snowpack is minimal. Early next week looks like the next significant chance for precipitation. Models agree with breaking down the ridge in favor of a wave, but the timing, track and intensity of this feature is much less certain. But the best shot for precipitation does look to be the Sunday to Sunday night time frame. Temperatures remain tricky during this period making precipitation type difficult to pin down, but models are trending cooler, with precipitation type likely to be a mix of rain and snow, transitioning to entirely snowfall. Temperatures trend further downward through the first half of the week next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1114 AM CST Tue Jan 29 2019 As very cold air continues to filter into the region, a mix between clear skies and occasional MVFR ceilings are expected thru the afternoon hours. Additionally, areas of blowing snow will lead to reduced visibility, especially eastward from KHON along the Hwy 14 corridor into SW MN. Gusty northwesterly winds up to 25-30 kts will continue into the early evening before diminishing thru the rest of the evening and overnight hours. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Wednesday for SDZ050-057>071. Wind Chill Advisory from noon Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday for SDZ050-057>071. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ039- 040-055-056. Wind Chill Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for SDZ038>040- 052>056. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ071- 072-080-081-089-090-097-098. Wind Chill Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for MNZ071-072-080- 081-089-090-097-098. IA...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Wednesday for IAZ012-020>022- 031-032. Wind Chill Advisory from noon Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday for IAZ012-020>022-031-032. Wind Chill Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for IAZ001>003-013- 014. NE...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Wednesday for NEZ013-014. Wind Chill Advisory from noon Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday for NEZ013-014. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Kalin