906 FXUS65 KBYZ 290342 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 842 PM MST Mon Jan 28 2019 .UPDATE... Forecast in good shape. Only change was to push best precipitation chance just a bit further west into Rosebud and Powder River counties based on latest trends. Looking at light accumulations up to an inch from Rosebud county east overnight. Will continue to see some areas of blowing and drifting snow through the early morning hours mainly east of a Miles City to Broadus line. Going wind chill advisory in good shape with models continuing to indicate lows below zero for far eastern zones with 10 to 20 mph winds. Chambers && .SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed... Overall, the weather will trend quieter in the short term. Winds will decrease and the blowing snow hazard over southeast MT and north central WY will diminish accordingly. A few bands of snow showers can move over southeast MT due to some low-level convergence and frontogenesis through Tuesday morning. The snow showers can cause quick and significant reductions in visibility and snow covered roads. Otherwise, the region should have dry conditions through Wednesday. An Arctic air mass will move southeastward over the central US tonight through early Wednesday. This pattern will cause colder air and breezy conditions to reside over eastern MT. The air should be cold enough and wind speeds high enough to cause dangerously cold wind chill values. So, have continued the Wind Chill Advisory for Fallon and Carter Counties from midnight tonight to 11 AM MST Wednesday. Wind chill values of 20 to 35 degrees below zero are expected during that time. The Arctic air mass will move farther away from the area on Wednesday, causing temperatures and wind chills to moderate. Additionally, winds will be increasing in the Livingston area late Tuesday night as high pressure builds over the ID/WY border and lee troughing develops over central Montana. Some gusts to 50 mph are possible but not anticipating 58 mph at this time due to the progged sea-level pressure gradient magnitude and mid-level winds. These gusty winds look to continue through the latter portion of the week. Low temperatures tonight will range from the teens and single digits above zero over much of southern MT/north central WY to the single digits below zero over far eastern MT. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the lower 30s west of Billings to the single digits above zero over far eastern MT. High temperatures will rise on Wednesday to the upper 30s west to middle teens east. RMS .LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon... An upper level ridge will move over the CWA Thursday and continue to influence the area through Saturday. Conditions will remain dry with temperatures above normal. Highs will be in the mid 40's and lows in the high 20's. The main concern for this period is going to be the gap winds in Livingston, Nye and Big Timber. The west to east surface pressure gradient begins to tighten on Friday and continues throughout the day Saturday before zonal flow takes over the area late Saturday. The winds are currently indicating less than advisory level but that could change as we move closer to Friday. A deep trough moves into the CWA on Sunday bringing cooler temps and the next chance of widespread precipitation to the area. Models are beginning to come into better agreement of a potential storm system moving into the area Sunday into Monday. This system brings the chance of rain/snow showers before switching over to all snow as the cooler air begins to move in. Temperatures will trend below normal with highs in the mid 20's and lows in the single digits to low teens. Carrothers && .AVIATION... Expect isolated to scattered snow showers overnight into early Tuesday from Treasure County E and SE, including in the KMLS and KBHK areas. Gusty NW surface winds will create areas of blowing and drifting snow. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected in the snow showers. Otherwise, VFR will prevail over the area through Tue. evening. Arthur && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 013/027 009/036 024/039 027/043 032/043 021/031 012/024 00/U 01/B 11/B 00/B 12/W 45/J 52/J LVM 010/033 015/038 023/040 026/044 032/042 025/035 018/031 00/U 01/N 10/N 00/N 12/W 36/J 33/J HDN 011/024 003/035 020/040 022/045 026/044 018/032 010/024 11/B 01/B 11/B 00/B 12/W 35/J 52/J MLS 002/010 905/023 016/039 023/044 027/041 015/025 005/020 41/B 11/B 11/B 00/B 11/E 35/J 52/J 4BQ 005/014 903/028 019/039 023/042 027/044 019/030 010/022 42/S 11/B 11/B 00/U 01/B 36/J 63/J BHK 907/003 915/016 009/033 020/039 025/038 012/023 003/017 50/N 00/B 10/B 00/B 01/B 24/J 54/J SHR 008/024 001/036 018/042 021/046 025/046 018/034 010/022 01/B 01/U 10/B 00/U 01/B 33/J 22/J && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Chill Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 11 AM MST Wednesday FOR ZONES 33-37. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings