802 FXUS63 KLBF 281139 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 539 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019 High wind event is underway across west central Nebraska, though thus far the corridor of the strongest winds has been confined to our east. With that it appears logical that our western zones can expire the current high wind warning on time /12z/. The rest of the high wind event looks fine for now and we will re-evaluate once the sun is up and the fronts are south of the forecast area. We still cannot rule out some lingering light snow this morning and possibly afternoon across our north and Sandhills as the models show waves of energy passing through with some moisture convergence. Though thus far, the precipitation aspect of the fronts/system has been challenged with little evidence of accumulation. Light snow chances pick back up once again tonight as the cold atmosphere works on the next noticeable wave of energy dropping south across the Plains. Moisture is once again challenged, but the thermal profiles would suggest high SLRs. A dusting to potentially as much as a inch of dry snow could accumulate along the SDAK border tonight and early Tuesday. High temperatures today will struggle to warm under strong CAA and some clouds. Highs will range from the teens up across our north to the low 30s over the far southwest. The elevated winds will make it feel much colder with sub-zero apparent T's in the forecast as early as this evening, though with lighter winds overnight, the latest guidance does not support wind chill headlines overnight. We will need to monitor our far northeastern zones closely however as minus teens are forecast. The brunt of the Arctic air arrives Tuesday. Highs in the single digits are likely along the SDAK border from central Cherry county eastward, once again however, the higher terrain across southwest Nebraska only lowers to the mid 30s. Single digit lows and teens are forecast Tuesday morning with single digits and sub-zero readings Wednesday morning. In fact, north of highway two, temperatures Wednesday morning may be minus 10-15. Northwest winds will be elevated Tuesday through Wednesday morning and with actual temperatures falling into the below zero for most locations, dangerous wind chills are anticipated. The current forecast suggests readings as cold as minus 35 across our northern zones from eastern Cherry County though Holt county with minus 20 from western Cherry County south through Custer County. Thus will go with a wind chill warning beginning at 00z for our north central zones and an advisory for those counties to the southwest. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019 Beginning 00z Wednesday. Wind chill headlines will be in effect until 18z Wednesday, though light southerly winds may allow for an early cancellation over western and central portions of the forecast area. The influence of building upper level ridging will allow for some warming across our western zones. The latest guidance still supports highs in the lower to mid 30s Wednesday afternoon. Though the Arctic high will still impact our eastern zones with highs still in the single digits there. We will have to monitor wind and temperature trends across our far north central Nebraska zones Wednesday afternoon for the possibility of a extension of the wind chill headlines, though with the Arctic high just to the east, winds are expected to be light. Warm temperatures return with a high Plains warm front on Wednesday. We expect readings to climb above freezing for all but the far northeastern/eastern portions of Boyd and Holt counties. Our western zones will potentially see readings in the lower 50s. Northwesterly flow transitions to zonal and keeps conditions dry into at least next Saturday with above normal temperatures expected. A trough digs into the southwestern states next weekend, which would cool us back to near normal for Sunday and possibly allow for some precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 507 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019 A second cold front moving south is now exiting the forecast area with strong to high winds area-wide. Highest winds have been over north central NEB overnight with KBBW reporting a peak wind of 66 mph at 450 AM CST. Winds will remain high across north central NEB through the morning, elsewhere winds are anticipated to start lessening across the eastern Panhandle now. Meanwhile, low clouds prevail across northern NEB with MVFR ceilings. Ceilings will become predominantly VFR by late morning. Winds will then decrease gradually through the afternoon. Low-end chances for snow then return to northern NEB tonight, best chances after midnight. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for NEZ005>010-023>029-035>038-094. Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Wednesday for NEZ005-008-024>027-037-038-094. Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for NEZ006-007-009-010-028-029. High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for NEZ004- 022-056. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jacobs LONG TERM...Jacobs AVIATION...ET