841 FXUS65 KABQ 271732 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1032 AM MST Sun Jan 27 2019 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE A dry northwest flow aloft will maintain VFR conditions this afternoon through Monday morning. SCT-BKN clouds AOA 150 will move across northern and central New Mexico through tonight, with the thickest cloud cover through 00Z. A strong backdoor cold front will enter the northeast plains before dawn on Monday and race south during the day with north to northeast winds increasing to 12 to 20 kts with gusts 25 to 35 kts. Light to moderate snow will fall over the northern mountains into the northeast, focused mostly over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent east slopes. Mountain obscurations expected with MVFR to IFR cigs in snow. && .PREV DISCUSSION...310 AM MST Sun Jan 27 2019... .SYNOPSIS... A warming trend will continue today, with daytime temperatures reaching up above normal across much of the area. A strong cold front will push through Monday, with the biggest temperature drop forecast across the eastern plains. Light snow is likely to accompany the front across the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and nearby highlands, with only an inch or two of accumulation expected. Monday night will be very cold behind the front, with below normal temperatures forecast. Look for a new warming trend thereafter, with temperatures rising above normal areawide by the end of the work week. A return to unsettled conditions is possible by the weekend, as a series of Pacific storm systems move east from over California. && .DISCUSSION... A warming trend will continue today and send daytime temperatures above normal across most of the area despite an increase in high clouds. Breezy downslope winds across eastern New Mexico this afternoon will be partially responsible for the warming there. A cold front is still forecast to push through Monday, with strong cold air advection across eastern New Mexico making it difficult for some northeast locales such as Clayton, Raton and Las Vegas to reach above freezing. Breezy to windy conditions will develop behind the front, with the strongest winds near the Texas border approaching wind advisory criteria. A round of light snow is still forecast to develop across northeast New Mexico behind the front, focusing over the Sangre De Cristos and nearby highlands. However, qpf from the 00Z model solutions trended down significantly and only an inch or two is expected now. Freezing fog may develop Monday night behind the front and impact a stretch of I-25 near Las Vegas and portions of US 285 near Clines Corners. Monday night will be a cold one behind the front, with below normal low temperatures forecast. A new warming trend will begin Tuesday and continue through the work week with daytime temperatures reaching above normal areawide by Friday at the latest. There is some disagreement among the 00z medium range model solutions with regard to a progression of closed Pacific lows eastward from over California late in the week and through the weekend, so lower forecast confidence at this time. However, it does appear that the west coast ridge will break-down and we may get back into a more active/unsettled pattern between days 6-10. 11 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry northwest flow aloft will continue across New Mexico today with an increase in high clouds this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure will develop across eastern New Mexico this afternoon, causing west winds to become breezy across the central and south central highlands with gusts to around 25 mph. Ventilation rates today will be mainly poor with fair conditions from the central and south central highlands eastward to the Texas border. A strong backdoor cold front will move across the eastern plains early Monday morning, and a Pacific cold front will push eastward cross western new Mexico Monday afternoon. North winds behind the backdoor cold front will range between 20 and 30 mph Monday with gusts to near 40 mph, while northwest winds across western New Mexico will be much lighter in the 10 to 20 mph range with a few gusts approaching 25 mph. Daytime temperatures in eastern and central New Mexico on Monday will be 5 to 20 degrees below normal, while temperatures in western New Mexico will be near to slightly below normal. Ventilation rates will be fair to good in eastern and western New Mexico Monday and poor to fair across central New Mexico. Areas of light snow will be possible across northeast and north central New Mexico Monday and Monday evening, as the strong backdoor cold front interacts with limited moisture. Snow amounts will be light with 1 to 2 inches of snow expected in the Sangre de Cristo mountains and amounts less than an inch across the rest of northeast and north central New Mexico. Dry northwest flow aloft on Tuesday will keep temperatures below normal. A weak low pressure area will pass to the south across northern Mexico on Wednesday with an increase of clouds south of I- 40 and milder temperatures across western New Mexico. Highs Wednesday across central and eastern New Mexico will continue to be below normal. Ventilation rates will be mainly poor Tuesday with fair conditions in the east central and southeast plains. Widespread poor ventilation rates are expected on Wednesday. There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast from Thursday into next weekend, as low pressure areas may move across southern and central California and into the southwest U.S. Daytime temperatures Thursday through Sunday are expected to moderate to above normal. 28 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$